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安阳钢铁(600569)公司点评:生产经营恢复正常 业绩大幅增长

天風證券 ·  Jul 5, 2018 00:00  · Researches

On July 3 of the event, the company issued the “2018 Semi-Annual Performance Forecast Notice”. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be between 900 million yuan and 1.05 billion yuan in the first half of 2018. Compared with the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to increase by 872 million yuan to 10.22 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3142% to 3682%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profits and losses will increase by 860 million yuan to 1,010 million yuan compared with the same period last year, an increase of 4104% to 4819% year on year. Production restrictions ended in the second quarter, and production returned to normal levels. The company is located in the 2017-2018 fall and winter environmental production limit area. Therefore, the first quarter was affected by environmental production restrictions (November 15, 2017 to March 15, 2018), and the company's production declined in the first quarter. According to the company's main business data announcement for the first quarter, the company's main products (profiles, strips and other products) produced a total of 1,632,300 tons, down 28.65% from 2.2877 million tons in the third quarter of last year (there was no production limit in the third quarter of last year) and 14.24% from 1,903,400 tons in the fourth quarter of last year (production limit for half time). Therefore, it can be seen that environmental protection has a great impact on the company's production situation. Production restrictions in the second quarter ended, the company's production returned to normal, and the increase in production led to a marked increase in performance over the previous month. The profit of the main products improved, helping the company improve its performance. The company's main products include boards, building materials and profiles, of which board accounts for the largest share. According to the company's 2017 annual report data, board product revenue accounted for 62.91% of total revenue. The company's plate products are mainly medium to thick plates and hot rolled coils. Since this year, downstream demand for medium and heavy board has clearly recovered. According to statistics from the China Shipbuilding Association, orders for new ships accepted by China increased 99.59% year-on-year in January-May; according to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association, excavator sales in January-May rose 60.18% year on year. Strong downstream demand has also led to an increase in profitability. According to statistics from the Steel Federation, since the beginning of May, the gross profit of hot-rolled products per ton of steel has surpassed that of rebar for the first time since 2017. The profit of the company's main products has improved, leading to an increase in the company's performance. The company's operations are stable, and the company's production and operation will remain relatively stable in the future, the company's production and operation will remain relatively stable, and the company's performance is expected to remain at the current level due to strong demand for its main board products and good sustainability. Considering that environmental protection policies have had a substantial impact on the company's production in the first quarter, the company's profit forecast has been adjusted due to prudential considerations. The 2018-2019 EPS was lowered from 1.28 yuan and 1.33 yuan to 1.01 yuan, 1.17 yuan. The estimated EPS for 2020 is 1.32 yuan, and the corresponding EPS for 2018-2020 is 3.67 times, 3.15 times, and 2.80 times respectively. The company's valuation has declined. Currently, it is at a low level, and the increase is “increase in holdings ” Ratings. Risk warning: Risks such as downstream demand falling short of expectations, increased environmental protection, and failure of steel production to meet targets.

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