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上海锦江国际酒店(02006.HK):盈利能力基本面改善 重申“买入”

國泰君安國際 ·  Jul 8, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  The net revenue of the company's main operating subsidiaries in the first quarter of 2018 increased 14.5% year-on-year to RMB 3.24 billion. Hotels in mainland China increased 7.8% year over year because the proportion of mid-range hotels with higher RevPAR increased 5.1 percentage points to 26.4% year over year. RevPar for mid-range hotels in the same store increased 6.4% year on year, while RevPar for budget hotels in the same store increased by only 1.7% year on year. The performance of mid-range brands was significantly superior to that of budget hotels. The operating profit margin of subsidiaries increased 3.0 percentage points year over year to 3.4%. We raised our adjusted EBITDA expectations for 2018 and 2019 by 23.5% and 27.6%, respectively. The company's operating profit margin for the second half of 2017 was significantly higher than expected, and the adjusted operating profit margin of the subsidiary in the first quarter of 2018 also increased markedly. We expect adjusted EBITDA for 2018-2020 to be RMB 4.2 billion, 4.6 billion, and $5 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6%. We expect basic and diluted earnings per share for 2018-2020 to be RMB 0.157, 0.182, and 0.211 yuan, with year-on-year increases of 14.8%, 15.9% and 16.1%, respectively. The company achieved positive adjusted net profit for the first time since 2010. The adjusted net profit in 2017 was RMB 289 million. If income and income from non-operating items were excluded, net profit was negative for each year from 2011 to 2016, but this was no longer the case in 2017. We believe that the company's acquisitions of Keystone Hospitality, Vienna Hotel, and Platinum Group in 2016 fundamentally changed the company's business, so it is possible to achieve positive net profit without relying on non-operating income in the future. We reiterated our “buy” investment rating and raised our target price of HK$3.20 to HK$3.80.

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