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海源机械(002529)深度报告:绑定吉利、CATL 复合材料设备龙头呼之欲出

財達證券 ·  May 30, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Abstract: Vehicle lightweighting is an important way to save energy and reduce emissions and develop new energy vehicles. Many domestic and foreign car companies have made lightweight automobile manufacturing a development priority. Using composite materials to manufacture automobiles is undoubtedly one of the most direct and effective solutions for automobile weight reduction. Global carbon fiber technology and production are mainly concentrated in Japan and the US. Japan's Toray, Toho, Mitsubishi Liyang, America's Cytec, Hexcel, and Zoltek, and Germany's SGL almost completely control global carbon fiber production capacity. In 2012 and 2015, the company developed a fully automatic long fiber reinforced thermoplastic composite (LFT-D) molding production line with independent intellectual property rights and HET series carbon fiber rapid prototyping process (HP-RTM) presses, becoming the second company in the world to master the core composite molding process, thus achieving a strategic transformation from manufacturing ceramic hydraulic machines and firebrick hydraulic presses to a composite equipment provider. At present, the company's composite materials have entered the supply chain of well-known domestic and foreign automobile companies and power battery companies such as Geely, Yutong, BMW, Ningde Shidai, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech. As the trend of automobile lightweighting increases and costs fall, the company's demand for composite materials will continue to rise, and profitability is expected to continue to increase. Profit forecast: Considering the future growth of the company's composite materials business, we predict that the company's operating income in 2018-2020 will increase by 15%, 25% and 30%, respectively, to 313 million yuan, 391 million yuan and 509 million yuan respectively; net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 41.69 million yuan, 5.02 million yuan and 51.74 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 494.79%, 19.98% and 3.45%, and EPS of 0.16 yuan, 0.19 yuan and 0.20 yuan respectively. Give the company an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: 1) Demand for new energy vehicles falls short of expectations; 2) Market competition intensifies.

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