share_log

合力泰(002217)深度报告:基础夯实后 开启产业升级之路

國信證券 ·  Jul 4, 2018 00:00  · Researches

From “1” to “N,” after leading domestic consumer electronics component platform companies achieved scale effects based on triggering business, the company began to expand high-value businesses such as new materials and FPC. Through mergers and acquisitions, expansion of own production capacity, and technological progress, the company's revenue scale has expanded rapidly. The increase in orders is mainly due to various new products such as FPCs, cameras, full screens, and wireless charging. The company is gradually upgrading from low-end module products to high-end R&D enterprises, and is building a leading domestic consumer electronics component platform company. Entering the upstream materials side, the goal is to achieve the goal of product upgrade companies through the acquisition of Lan Pei and cut into high-value core links such as nanocrystalline materials and EMI shielding to form an overall solution provider for wireless charging and EMI shielding. In the 5G era, EMI demand will continue to grow. Lanpei has obvious advantages. At the same time, Lanpei can enhance the company's competitiveness in FPC products. As the company continues to expand upstream of the “smile curve”, the company will open up a high-end product route, have stronger product competitiveness, and be able to provide customers with complete solutions. Change the organizational structure, be oriented towards large customers, and strive to achieve customer upgrades. In the past, the company achieved unconventional development through its excellent large-scale manufacturing capabilities. In the past two years, the company has used new products such as wireless charging materials, EMI materials, and FPC as breakthroughs, and has now upgraded its main customers from ODM manufacturers to brand customers. In terms of business model, the company has been serving major customers since the R&D side, hoping to build a one-stop platform-based enterprise. At the same time, the company has made major changes in its organizational structure, emphasizing the provision of supporting services with major customers as the core. Risk warning 1. The progress of new products has not met expectations, and the shipment volume of brand customers has fallen short of expectations. Second, the growth rate of the consumer electronics industry has slowed, and downstream demand for traditional products has declined. 3. The progress of the subsidiary's business integration has not met expectations. A platform-based manufacturing company in the electronics industry with a low valuation maintains a “buy” rating. We predict that Helitai's 2018-2020 net profit will be 17.08/24.73/32.14 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.55/0.79/1.03 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 15/10/8X, respectively. In terms of valuation, the company's valuation is below the industry average. We expect that the camera modules and FPCs laid out in previous years will begin to enter the release period. At the same time, the future new materials business will help the company achieve customer and product upgrades. We have given Helitai a target PE value of 20X for 2018, corresponding to a reasonable valuation of 11 yuan. Give a “buy” rating. Investment summary valuation and investment recommendations anticipate that as new products continue to develop, the company will gradually grasp the upstream core links of high-value volumes, thereby getting rid of the low end and moving towards high-end manufacturing to provide customers with one-stop services. We predict that Helitai's net profit for 2018-2020 will be 17.08/24.73/32.14 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.55/0.79/1.03 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 15/10/8X, respectively. Based on the results of our absolute valuation and relative valuation, we used the FCFF valuation method to absolutely value the company, and based on the following assumptions, the company's reasonable stock price was 23.57 yuan. The relative valuation method compares the average PE value of companies in 18-20 to 18.48/13.34/10 times. We gave Helitai 20 times the target PE for 2018, and the corresponding reasonable valuation was 11 yuan. Core assumptions or logic (1) Traditional triggering businesses maintain steady growth, but performance growth rates will slow, with growth rates of 20%/19%/18% in 18-20; (2) further release of camera production capacity is expected to show explosive growth, with growth rates of 402%/105%/14% in 18-20; (3) FPC is expected to grow 55%/89%/35% in 18-20; (3) FPC is expected to grow at 55%/89%/35% in 18-20; (4) Lanpei New Materials' wireless charging and EMI materials businesses are expected to continue to expand in large clients18. The year will begin, and performance is expected to begin to explode. The growth rate is expected to be 94%/50% in 19-20. Differences with market expectations The market views on Helitai believe that the company's traditional low value volume business still accounts for a large share, and that the company's growth is insufficient. We believe that in the past, the company achieved unconventional development due to its excellent large-scale manufacturing capabilities. In the past two years, the company has used new products such as wireless charging materials, EMI materials, and FPC as breakthroughs to upgrade major customers from ODM manufacturers to brand customers. Start from the R&D side to build a one-stop platform enterprise. The catalytic factor for changes in stock prices We believe that the company started with the original trigger business as the core and expanded high-value business. Revenue scale has expanded rapidly through mergers and acquisitions, expansion of in-house production capacity, and technological progress. Through the acquisition of Lan Pei, the company has entered high-value core links such as nanocrystalline collar materials and EMI shielding. As the company continues to expand upstream of the “smile curve”, the company will completely open up the high-end product route. After the integrated advantages are formed, the company will have stronger product competitiveness and provide customers with complete solutions. We are optimistic that the company's new products and new business will gradually expand in the future, achieve the company's successful transformation, and build a first-class consumer electronics platform company in China. The main risk of the core hypothesis or logic is 1. Major customers of new products are not progressing as expected. Brand customer shipments fell short of expectations. Second, the growth rate of the consumer electronics industry has slowed, and downstream demand for traditional products has declined. 3. The progress of the subsidiary's business integration has not met expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment