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先健科技(01302.HK):左心耳封堵器高速成长 大股东更替带来新看点

興業證券 ·  Jun 24, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  The main point of investment is that academic promotion of the left ventricular ear blocker has seen results one by one, entering a rapid growth channel. The company's left ventricular ear blocker system, LamBRE, is the only Chinese brand among the world's listed products. Currently, more than 1,900 cases have been implanted worldwide. In the domestic market, the company's product LaMbre has now entered a period of rapid growth through early academic promotion. Since its listing in China, the company has carried out more than 20 large-scale clinical training activities and many topical academic conferences. Currently, the company's products have covered more than 80 hospitals nationwide. In 2018, terminal market usage increased significantly, and clinical promotion results have gradually become apparent. We expect that under the dual wheel drive of domestic and overseas markets, the company's left ventricular ear blocker revenue is expected to grow by more than 100% in 2018 and maintain a compound growth of more than 60% within 3 years. Medtronic's withdrawal will not change the pacemaker business partnership; China Everbright Holdings is expected to bring potential collaboration. In May 2018, Medtronic, the company's former shareholder, announced that it would sell 22.4% of its shares to China Everbright Holdings Limited. The pacemaker business that the company cooperated with Medtronic was not affected, and strategic cooperation continued to be maintained. We believe that the current shareholder change is beneficial to the long-term development of Xianjian Technology. The new shareholder, China Everbright Holdings, is not doing business with the company like Medtronic. The company's control over its own business has been strengthened, and the possibility of the company's product cooperation with other foreign-funded enterprises has also increased the possibility of the company's product cooperation with other foreign-funded enterprises. However, China Everbright Holdings' investment in global healthcare companies is expected to bring potential synergy to the company's future mergers and acquisitions and cooperation. Profit forecast: The company is a leading supplier of minimally invasive cardiovascular and peripheral vascular interventional medical devices in China. Currently, the company's main business is products with a small market size, while the company's potential products, left ventricular ear blockers, pacemakers, and iron-based absorbent stents, are all large varieties with a domestic market space greater than 10 billion yuan. As the company's potential products gradually grow and the products under development are listed one after another, the company will also gradually grow, and future development prospects are broad. This time, shareholder Medtronic withdrew from the company's current business cooperation without damage. The entry of China Everbright Holdings will bring new room for imagination to industrial cooperation. We expect the company's 2018-2020 operating income to be 4.99/5.95/697 million yuan, net profit of 1.88/218/249 million yuan, and EPS of 0.043, 0.050, and 0.058 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 50 times, 43 times, and 38 times PE. The target price was raised to HK$3.00. The target price has room for improvement of about 14.5% compared to the current price, maintaining the “prudent increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: sales of left ventricular ear blockers fell short of expectations; pacemaker launch time fell short of expectations; device negotiations reduced prices exceeded expectations

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