1H18 profit is forecast to increase by 50% to 70% year on year.
The company predicts that the 1H18 homing net profit is 823 to 933 million yuan, an increase of 50.70 percent over the same period last year, corresponding to a growth rate of 72.149 percent in the second quarter, which exceeds market expectations.
The high profit growth is mainly due to the sustained and rapid growth of raw pulp in sub-high-end years, the product structure continues to improve, and the sales expense rate goes down. we expect a net profit of 1.66 billion yuan (+ 44.2%) in 2018.
Pay attention to the main points
We predict that the raw pulp of the sub-high-end year will grow by 58% in 2018, and the revenue will reach 19.9 billion yuan in 2018. The proportion of Gujing brand in the secondary high-end will rise to 25% and 32%. The high-end scale of Gujing ranks first in Anhui Province, and the brand influence and scale advantage lead the upgrading trend of liquor consumption in the province. The high-end scale of Anhui in 2017 is about 2.7 billion yuan. Based on the improvement of per capita income, it is predicted that it will reach 9 billion yuan in 2021. At that time, the proportion of sub-high-end in Anhui Province will reach the level of Jiangsu today, and there will be room for growth.
At present, the total consumption of liquor in the market in Anhui Province is 500,000 to 600,000 tons, and drinking at folk banquets is moving towards the price of more than 80 yuan. We estimate that the mid-range and above price of Gujing tribute wine will reach 45000 tons in the province in 2018, which has more room for further improvement. Mid-and low-end brands in the province continue to shrink due to price upgrading, showing a continuous harvest trend of Gujing and Kouzijiao, ushering in a steady growth in the price of 80 to 150 yuan.
The average annual reduction in the rate of sales expenses in the next three years 1.5~2ppt is relatively certain, and the profit growth rate will be maintained at more than 30%. Mainly benefit from the scale effect brought by the improvement of income volume and structure, at the same time, the cost of the company began to rely on the terminal to shift to brands and consumers, more streamlined and efficient.
Valuation and suggestion
Due to the higher-than-expected growth of sub-high-end products, we raised the company's revenue of 1.0% Universe 1.6% in 19 years to RMB 839. 0 billion in 1919, and raised the net profit of return to the parent by 5.3% to RMB 1.66 billion, with a corresponding above-ground price of 5.4% to RMB 118.5, corresponding to the 1819 36max 27x PPCue, and the current price corresponding to 18Universe 27x Pamp E in 1819, 33.5% space from the target price.
Risk
If the provincial sub-high-end price competition is significantly intensified, the cost input is still high, the performance may not meet expectations.
