Events:
The company issued a revision announcement of the 2018 half-year performance forecast, and the expected change range of the half-year performance was revised from 26 million yuan to 32 million yuan to 50 million yuan to 55 million yuan, an increase of 196.44% to 226.08% over the same period last year.
We believe that:
The company's performance forecast has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, which is basically in line with the judgment of the company's half-year return net profit of about 50 million yuan in the forecast of the China News. After deducting the first-quarter results, the company's second-quarter net profit is expected to reach 3736-42.36 million yuan, an increase of 355% to 416% over the same period last year.
The logic of strict environmental protection and capacity removal continues to be realized. From May to June 2018, the central government launched environmental protection supervision and inspection "looking back", and farms became the focus of supervision. According to the statistics of the China Animal Husbandry Association, the production capacity of ancestral ducks dropped to 210000 sets in May from 240000 sets in April, and continued to drop to 200000 sets in June. The growth rate of parental generation stocks declined in the first half of the year, and the commodity generation is expected to continue to be in shortage throughout the year. Medium-and long-term capacity will be eliminated, and the upward momentum will continue.
The off-season is not weak in the second quarter, and the duck chain is expected to hit a new high in the second half of the year. According to the statistics of Boya Hexun and Waterfowl net, the average price of 2018Q1, Liuhe and duck fry was 2.45 yuan per feather, an increase of 33%, and the divided duck product was 7.63 yuan / kg, an increase of 4% over the same period last year. The average price of 2018Q2, Liuhe duck fry was 3.37 yuan per feather, an increase of 205% over the same period last year, and the divided duck product was 7.68 yuan / kg, an increase of 18% over the same period last year. Brazilian chicken opened double reverse, the peak consumption season in the third quarter, which contributed to the upward price of duck chain in the second half of the year. We expect the average price of duck seedlings to remain around 4 yuan per feather in the second half of the year. The high probability is higher than the all-time high.
The management of the company continues to increase its holdings and its production capacity continues to expand. on March 27, 2018, the company issued an announcement that managers plan to increase their holdings by not less than 100 million yuan from March 27 to September 26, and the increase is still continuing. The company announced on June 14, 2018 that the Henan provincial government agreed in principle that the total amount of funds (including issuance fees) raised by Huaying Agriculture through the non-public offering of A-shares on the securities market should not exceed 600 million RMB. It is used for the construction of three-dimensional ecological breeding of 22.86 million commercial ducks and annual processing of 30, 000 tons of feathers.
Maintain our estimate of 200 million yuan for the company's performance for 18 years. Breeding: the company is expected to produce about 200 million ducks in 18 years, of which 100 million are exported and 90 million are slaughtered. It is estimated that the complete cost of raising duck seedlings is about 2.7 yuan per feather. Frozen products: about 270000 tons in 18 years, including 210000 tons of frozen ducks, about 9750 yuan / ton of frozen ducks and 60,000 tons of frozen chickens. Down: estimated income of 2 billion yuan in 18 years (Xintang Down), profit of 110 million yuan, and table 51%, with an estimated annual growth rate of 20% in the future.
Investment suggestion: we forecast that the company's revenue in 1919 will be 5608 million, net profit will be 2.02 billion, EPS will be 0.38, 0.49 yuan, and target price will be 13 yuan.
Risk hint: duck price rise is not as expected, epidemic risk, trust plan forced closing position