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华英农业(002321)2018年半年度业绩预告修正点评:鸭链景气回升 喜迎业绩上修

Huaying Agriculture (002321) 2018 half-year performance forecast revised comments: duck chain rebound welcome performance revision

國泰君安 ·  Jul 9, 2018 00:00  · Researches

This report is read as follows:

At present, when the duck industry is booming, the company, as the "duck king of the world", will fully benefit from the prosperity of the industry.

At the same time, with the deepening of the reform of the company's state-owned enterprises and the improvement of the company's efficiency into the fast lane, the current layout of Hua Ying was at that time.

Main points of investment:

We believe that duck chain Jingqi has fully recovered, and the business of duck fry, frozen duck and duck down will drive the company's rapid growth in 2018. With the deepening of the reform of state-owned enterprises, the improvement of internal governance significantly improves the operational efficiency of the company and opens up the flexibility of medium-and long-term performance. We maintain the company's estimated EPS of 0.38,0.53 and 0.60 yuan for 18-20 years, maintain the target price of 10.21 yuan, and maintain the "overweight" rating.

The prices of the company's main products have rebounded sharply, and the prices of other products have also increased to a certain extent compared with the same period last year. The company expects to make a profit of 50 million-55 million in the first half of 2018, a sharp increase of 196.44% Murray 226.08% over the same period last year. We judge that due to the impact of the increase in the price of environmental protection and related alternatives, as well as the withdrawal of production capacity due to industry losses after 2011, duck prices have entered a period of rebound, which will continue until at least 2019, leading to explosive profit growth per feather. At the same time, duck feathers are another important aspect of the company's performance. Due to shrinking duck production and rising prices such as cotton substitutes, down prices have also risen. At the same time, with the increase in the slaughtering capacity of the company's meat ducks, the company is expected to produce 8300 and 11100 tons of raw wool in 18-19, and the duck feather business alone is expected to contribute 100% + growth.

The reform of the company's state-owned enterprises has been continuously deepened, and the operating efficiency has been significantly improved, opening up the flexibility of future performance. Internally, the company adopts a flexible management system, relaxes the recruitment restrictions on subsidiaries and introduces more social talents; the incentive mechanism has also been reformed to cash in rewards and punishments through the implementation of margin system and excess reward system to enhance the enthusiasm of employees. Externally, the company will strengthen the management and control of dealers, adopt the dealer shareholding system, mobilize the enthusiasm of dealers, and the improvement of efficiency will open up the flexibility of medium-and long-term performance.

Risk hint: the risk of epidemic disease and the rise in duck prices are not up to expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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