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金固股份(002488)首次覆盖报告:业绩拐点明确 汽修新零售领军

國盛證券 ·  Jul 5, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Steel rollers lead the way, and the 5-year transformation model for new auto repair retail is clear. The company was founded in 1986 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2010. It is a leader in the domestic steel roller wheel industry. It officially entered the new auto repair retail market in 2013. The “Auto Superman” brand has developed more than 20,000 stores across the country and has become an upstart in the aftermarket industry. The company's overall net profit for 2018 Q1 increased by 229.14% year on year, and the profit situation improved markedly, indicating that after 5 years of transformation, the profit model for the new business is gradually becoming clear. The new auto repair retail market space has broken over trillion dollars and has entered the stage of oligopolistic competition. According to statistics from China's Ministry of Public Security, the number of cars owned in China reached 217 million vehicles in 2017, an increase of 11.9% over the previous year. It is expected to remain an incremental market for a long time. According to data from the Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, China's automotive aftermarket market has already exceeded 1 trillion yuan in 2017. The industry experienced an influx of capital and scale explosion in 2014. In the second half of 2015, a large number of newly established companies went out of business due to unclear profit models and the end of financial subsidies. Now they have entered the stage of oligopoly competition, emphasizing offline services and refined operations. “Auto Superman” refines and empowers stores and expands steadily, and is expected to usher in a harvest period for winners. Auto Superman Smart Store SaaS system covers many aspects of store operation, marketing, and management, empowering stores and achieving refined management. According to grassroots research, some stores in Hangzhou increased their revenue by more than 30% half a year after launching the SaaS system. Core stores mainly expand steadily through direct management, franchise, and investment. Under the premise of ensuring the brand's service quality, high-quality local store resources are selected for in-depth strategic cooperation. The technical, business, and card barriers are deep enough. In July 2017, the company launched a plan with 10,000 stores in 100 cities, and the expansion rate of core stores accelerated markedly. The auto finance service platform, which is branded as Jinji Good Auto, is also expected to rely on the rapid expansion of offline service scenarios. The Auto Superman brand emphasizes refined operation and promotes win-win cooperation. It is expected to gradually win in competition and enjoy the winners' harvest period. The first coverage gives an “gain” rating. It is expected that the traditional steel wheel business will develop steadily, and the automotive aftermarket, financial business, and environmental protection equipment will grow rapidly. Based on the above key assumptions of business revenue and expenses, the company's revenue for 2018-2020 is estimated to be $4.563 billion, $6.173 billion, and $7.768 billion, respectively, and net profit attributable to mother of $241 million, $395 million, and $588 million, respectively. Risk warning: Store expansion falls short of expectations; profitability falls short of expectations; affected by downstream industry cycle fluctuations.

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