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东百集团(600693)深度报告:新零售基础设施提供者

招商證券 ·  Jun 11, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The predecessor of Dongbai Group was the Fuzhou Dongjiekou Department Store established in 1957. It was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1993, and Dongbai Group was formally established in 1997. After 60 years of growth and transformation, Dongbai Group grew from a single department store retailer to a large-scale commercial group integrating various business formats such as commerce, real estate, hotel management, and advertising information. The company's business focus ranges from retail to commercial real estate to current logistics real estate, and the core essence of its commercial infrastructure operations has not changed. Transform logistics real estate into a new blue ocean and achieve new growth. Logistics real estate has attracted capital attention from various sectors due to increased demand and high returns. Dongbai strives to become a modern logistics asset operator based on the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei core urban agglomerations, supported by important node cities in central China, southwest China, and northwest China, and complemented by emerging warehousing and logistics cities. In terms of laying out the logistics industry, Dongbai leverages major real estate shareholders to acquire land, form high-quality professional teams to operate, and hold subsidiaries to focus on logistics warehousing and real estate development. The retail business has been thoroughly sorted out and is ready to go. The company currently has a total of 6 stores, 5 of which are located in Fuzhou and 1 store is rooted in Xiamen. It has its own property area of about 102,000 square meters, fully benefiting from the recovery of the industry. Hall B and Hall C of Dongbai Center has gradually opened to increase its performance. In the future, with the completion of Fu'an East 100 Plaza and Lanzhou International Trade Center, the area of owned properties will be further increased, which is expected to bring a higher margin of safety to the company. In terms of commercial real estate, it continues to contribute to performance. In 2017, the company's total commercial real estate revenue was 1,871 billion yuan, up 51.21% year on year, accounting for nearly 50% of total revenue. The company launched commercial real estate development business in the third- and fourth-tier cities of Lanzhou and Fu'an, creating a local competitive advantage. Furthermore, the inventory of the project for sale has not yet been exhausted. As the pre-sale area is carried over and the stock is removed one after another, it will continue to bring about an increase in performance. Investment advice. The company's logistics real estate business has entered a period of performance harvesting after two years of cultivation, and will develop further rapidly in the future as the focus of operations. The retail industry is benefiting from industry recovery and store adjustments. Revenue and profit are expected to grow rapidly this year. The stock of the two commercial real estate projects has not yet been exhausted. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 405 million/453 million dollars in 2018/2019. The corresponding PE is 14.0x/12.5x, and for the first time, it has been given a “Highly Recommended - A” rating. Risk warning: The industry is recovering slowly, the real estate market continues to fluctuate, and the progress of real estate projects falls short of expectations.

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