Summary of the report
Automobile enterprises + supplier partnership mode, lightweight composite materials ushered in the window period
There is a linear relationship between the mileage of new energy vehicles and the quality of weight loss, and the mileage of new energy vehicles is increased by 5% to 10% for every 10% weight loss. Double points and subsidy policies encourage automobile companies to accelerate the layout of lightweight compound materials. Among the lightweight materials, the density of carbon fiber and glass fiber is less than 1/4 of that of steel, and the strength is 5 to 7 times that of steel, which is the first choice for middle and high-end automobile companies to lose weight.
According to the estimation of Zhiyan Consulting, the domestic new energy vehicle composite market space is less than 2 billion yuan at present, and will exceed 6 billion yuan by 2020, plus the traditional automobile market space is nearly 100 billion yuan. In 2017, there are representatives of "car enterprises + suppliers" model, including Geely + Haiyuan, BAIC + Yunhai Metal and Kangde + BAIC. From the existing production capacity planning of automobile enterprises, 2019 is an important inflection point for the release of industry capacity. Haiyuan's self-developed fully automatic composite hydraulic press, LFTD and SMC production lines and HP-RTM process carbon fiber products have first-mover advantages in the industry.
Supply Geely, BMW, CATL, with large customer advantages and sufficient orders
The company and Ningde Times, Geely, brilliance BMW, Yutong, Liuqi and other customers have reached batch supply cooperation agreements. Geely: the company set up a factory in Yiwu, close to Geely production base, supporting the supply of SMC lightweight products, LFT-D lightweight products and carbon fiber products. At present, the mold development of the MPC-1 project has been basically completed, and the model is expected to be put on the market in bulk in 2018, and the sales revenue is expected to reach 450 million yuan in the life cycle. According to our forecast, the market space of Geely Automobile composite materials is currently about 2.3 billion yuan. BMW: the company has become a second-tier supplier to BMW through Otuo, and is expected to supply spare box sound insulation, chassis thermal insulation, engine cabin thermal insulation and sound insulation components, etc. Ningde era: the company is the designated supplier of the battery box cover project in Ningde era, and once again received the notice of the fixed point and mold opening instruction of the CATL battery box cover project. It is expected to gradually enter the stage of mass production in 2018, and the total sales revenue is expected to reach 150 million yuan in the life cycle.
Capacity has been put into operation smoothly and is expected to be released in 2019
Yiwu capacity planning: the first phase plans to put into two automotive SMC lightweight products and LFT-D lightweight products production lines and two carbon fiber production lines with a standard production capacity of 400t / year. The second phase plans to invest four SMC lightweight products production lines and four carbon fiber production lines. The first phase will be completed and put into production within 24 months after obtaining the construction license, and the second phase will start construction in 2019. The company is expected to usher in the release period of production capacity and performance in 2019.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that from 2018 to 2020, the return net profit of the company will be 1.16,1.63 and 292 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS 0.45,0.63 and 1.12 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE to 38,27 and 15 times respectively, maintaining the "highly recommended" rating.
Risk hint
The progress of production expansion is not as expected; competition aggravates the decline in product prices.
