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文科园林(002775)年报点评:业绩高增符合预期 配股保障项目落地

海通證券 ·  May 4, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Revenue has grown rapidly, and Q4 growth has slowed. In 2017, the company achieved revenue of 2,565 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 69.10%, mainly due to the smooth implementation of PPP and EPC projects signed earlier. On a quarterly basis, the revenue growth rates of 17Q1-Q4 in a single quarter were 60.60%, 118.97%, 77.09%, and 26.17%, respectively. The Q4 revenue growth rate slowed down. Judging from the revenue structure, garden engineering remains the main source, accounting for 97.25%, revenue growth of 70.07%; design business decreased to 2.43%, revenue growth of 30.36%; garden maintenance business increased by 260.36%, but accounting for a relatively small share. In terms of regional distribution, business in East China grew by 157.84%, accounting for an increase of 4.43 ppp to 12.87%, while business in central China grew by 26.70%, and its share decreased by 7.27 pps to 21.72%. Gross margin and period expense ratio have been reduced, net interest rate has increased, and net cash flow has increased. In 2017, the company achieved significant growth in net profit of 244 million yuan, a sharp increase of 74.96%, and net profit after deduction of 242 million yuan, an increase of 78.77%. The company's gross margin in 2017 fell by 2.10 pct to 18.77%, and the period fee rate fell by 2.05 pct to 6.20%. Among them, the management fee rate fell by 1.81 pct to 5.23%, mainly due to the expansion of the volume of individual projects and the scale effect; the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.24 pct to 0.97%. In April 2018, the company successfully completed an allotment of 841 million yuan, and the financial expense ratio is expected to continue to decrease. The company's net interest rate in 2017 increased slightly by 0.32 pct to 9.52% compared to 2016. The company's revenue ratio in 2017 was 61.77%, down 19.78 pct from the previous year. The net operating cash flow was -129 million yuan, an increase of 16 million yuan in net outflow from 2016. The main reason was that the project was in the early stages of construction, did not reach the repayment period, and project expenses were high, and the company's balance ratio remained stable. There are sufficient orders in hand, and the allotment fund guarantee project has been implemented. By the end of 2017, the company had signed a total of 4.844 billion yuan of unfinished orders, including 4,540 billion yuan for engineering orders and 304 million yuan for design orders. There are plenty of orders in hand. At the end of 2017, the company had 312 million yuan in cash. Additionally, it successfully issued allotments in 2018, raising 841 million yuan in capital, which will effectively guarantee the smooth implementation of the project. In the future, we believe that the company will further increase the development of municipal businesses such as ecological management and infrastructure construction, and actively develop business in ecological and cultural tourism to accelerate the implementation of PPP model businesses; on the other hand, we believe that the company will increase investment, mergers and acquisitions, and strategic cooperation in the fields of ecology, environmental protection, tourism, etc., to achieve a two-wheel drive for business and investment. Profit forecasts and valuations. We expect the company's EPS in 18-19 to be 1.16 yuan and 1.69 yuan respectively. The company has sufficient orders, low debt ratio, large financing space, availability of allotment capital to effectively guarantee project implementation, and rapid performance growth with high certainty; in addition, PPP business share has increased, business structure has improved, and extended mergers and acquisitions have been superimposed to improve the industrial chain, giving a price-earnings ratio of 20 times in 18 years and a target price of 23.2 yuan for 6 months, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk warning. Payback risk, business development risk, policy risk.

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