Key investment recommendation logic: The company is a leading enterprise in the domestic daily chemical industry, focusing on care products. The market share of this product is 3.4%, ranking first in the national brand list. As the company's internal development and extension go hand in hand, it is expected that high growth will be achieved in the future under the dual drive of “brand” and “channel”. Internally: (1) Focus on building the “Lafon” brand group, with clear market segmentation positioning. Based on the original “Lafon” brand, the company has gradually built various brands such as “Yu Jie”, “Medos”, “Binchun”, and “Shengfeng” to build the “Lafang” brand group. In 2017, the company's high-end brand “Medos” accounted for a record 13.1% of revenue, and the brand upgrade led to an increase in the profitability of the company's products. In terms of product audience, the company clearly positions “mass”, “mid-range” and “high-end”; in terms of product functions, the company is divided according to “softness”, “scalp care”, “damage repair”, etc. Precise market positioning for various types of products, covering multiple levels of consumers. (2) Omni-channel three-dimensional collaborative development. The company mainly focuses on distribution and supermarket channels, and is complemented by e-commerce channels. In terms of dealers, the number of core dealers has stabilized at more than 390, and the revenue contribution rate of strong dealers has reached 29%. In terms of supermarket channels, the company cooperates with many large supermarkets such as Walmart and Carrefour, and buyout transactions account for more than 95%. In terms of e-commerce channels, e-commerce channels accounted for 4.1%, 5.0% and 9.1% of revenue from 2015 to 2017, respectively, and the gross margin of the company's e-commerce channel was as high as 71% in 2016. The rapid expansion of e-commerce channels led to a continuous increase in the company's gross margin. Externally: (1) Increase capital in Suqian Baibao and embrace IP e-commerce. The company holds 20% of Suqian Baibao's shares. Many founders of famous Internet companies are Suqian Baibao executives. Taking advantage of the maternal and child economy and social content e-commerce, Suqian Baibao has made high performance promises, demonstrating its confidence and potential for development. (2) Set up an industrial fund and acquire 26.8% of the shares in Makeup Information to lay out the beauty sector. On the one hand, the company set up a beauty industry fund to find high-quality beauty projects, actively lay out offline beauty CS chain stores, build marketing channels, and accumulate traffic. On the other hand, the company plans to acquire 26.8% of the shares in Makeup Information and enter the self-media and beauty fields. Benchmarking the development path of Qingdao Jinwang, the company's development potential in the field of channel construction and beauty is limitless. Profit forecasts and investment advice. The EPS for 2018-2020 is expected to be 1.03 yuan, 1.23 yuan, and 1.44 yuan respectively. Net profit from the mother will maintain a compound growth rate of 22.03% over the next three years, corresponding to dynamic PE of 28 times, 23 times, and 20 times, respectively. We selected Shanghai Jiahua, Palaiya, and Yujiahui as comparable companies. According to Wind's unanimous forecast, the average valuation of the three companies in 2018 was 40 times, giving the company 33 times PE, and the corresponding six-month target price of 34.00 yuan, covering the “buy” rating for the first time. Risk warning: Risks such as increased market competition, a sharp rise in raw material prices, and the completion of fund-raising projects and production progress or falling short of expectations.
拉芳家化(603630)公司研究报告:内外兼修拥抱消费升级 民族日化龙头加速崛起
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