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重庆钢铁(601005)首次覆盖:产量增加、费用下降 利润大幅上升

國信證券 ·  May 15, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The Sichuan and Chongqing steel market is about 40 million tons. After the net inflow of steel into the region, Sichuan and Chongqing, after “removing capacity” and “shutting down medium frequency furnaces,” steel production declined significantly. The local demand for steel is about 40 million tons, and the annual steel inflow is about 6 million tons, and the regional supply is in short supply. As a result, local steel prices are higher than in coastal areas. The enterprise has been restructured, and asset quality has been optimized. After the bankruptcy and restructuring of Chongqing Iron and Steel, the fixed assets of tons of steel, and the level of three fees per ton of steel have all returned to a reasonable level. Among them, the three fees per ton of steel in the first quarter of 2018 were at a good level. In the first quarter, the company's management fees were equivalent to 66 yuan/ton of steel, and the company's financial expenses were equivalent to the financial expenses of 22.5 yuan/ton of steel, all of which were far below the average of large and medium-sized steel companies. Production continues to increase and energy consumption is reduced. After the new management team settled in, the management and production level of Chongqing Steel was greatly improved. In the first quarter of 2018, steel production reached 1.492 million tons, and the annual capacity utilization rate also increased to 71%. According to the plan, the target of producing 6 million tons of steel in 2018 can be met throughout the year. In the first quarter of 2018, it reached 516.6 kg of standard coal, and the proportion of enterprises own electricity reached 86.04%. Profitability continues to increase. After the restructuring, the profitability of Heavy Steel has been greatly improved. Net profit for the first quarter of 2018 reached 350 million yuan, and the net profit margin on sales reached 6.8%, a significant increase compared with previous years. The net profit margin on sales has reached the midstream level of the industry. The return on corporate net assets for the first quarter (average) was 2.07%. Profit forecast: Profit for the year 17 was over 17 billion yuan, with a “neutral” rating for the first time. We predict that the company will achieve operating income of 2.118 billion yuan, 21.60 billion yuan and 2.204 billion yuan in 2018-2020, and achieve net profit of 14.96/14.14/1,502 billion yuan, equivalent to earnings per share of 0.17/0.16/0.17 yuan. According to the price of 2.17 on May 11, the corresponding dynamic PE is 12.9/13.7/12.9 x, respectively. Risks suggest a sharp decline in steel consumption

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