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金通灵(300091)年报及一季报点评:盈利能力显著增长 回款状况大幅改善

國泰君安 ·  May 2, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The steam turbine business maintained rapid growth in 2017. The net sales margin of 2018Q1 reached 11.3% (+3.3 pct in 2017), and orders in hand at the end of 2017 were 5.04 billion. Future project integration and ecological industrial park operation will be the core driver of performance. Investment highlights: Conclusion: The company's revenue and net profit in 2017 were $1,46/ 125 million yuan, up 56.5%/191% year on year, while 2018Q1 revenue and net profit were $3.9/0.4 billion respectively, up 52.7%/103% year on year. Based on the company's future leap to integration+operator and downstream expansion of the value chain, the company's 2018-19 EPS was raised to 0.44/0.72 (+0.05) yuan, and is expected to be EPS of 0.97 yuan in 2020, maintaining a target price of 19.4 yuan and an increase in holdings rating. Profitability has increased significantly, and repayment conditions have improved dramatically. ① Driven by strong demand for EPC, the steam turbine business revenue in 2017 was 750 million yuan (+241%), continuing the high growth trend. Affected by price increases for raw materials such as steel, etc., the overall gross profit margin in 2017 was 26%, down 1.9 pct from 2016; ② In 2017, the company's EPC project added orders of 5.19 billion yuan, and ongoing orders at the end of the period were 5.04 billion yuan; ③ The overall return of capital in 2017 was comparable to sales. Among them, Chen's arrears recovered more than 120 million yuan, and the 2018Q1 sales cash inflow was 264 million yuan (+48.6%) ), which is comparable to the revenue growth rate; ④ The 2018Q1 fee rate declined significantly. While gross margin remained stable, the net sales margin reached 11.3%, an increase of 3.3 pct over 2017. Gradually complete the crossing of equipment vendors -> integrators -> operators, and the value chain extends downstream. ① The gasification method reduced biomass consumption by 70-80%, and the storage radius was drastically shortened. The commercial operation of the Gaoyou Linyuan 10MW project successfully laid the foundation for expansion. Currently, the 60-80MW project is successfully negotiated; ② As a leading fluid machinery company, on the one hand, it is expected to achieve import replacement of high-end products, and on the other hand, it is rapidly expanding in the EPC field, with significant improvements in order profitability and repayment conditions; ③ The proposed acquisition of Shanghai Yunneng has high efficiency boiler supply capacity and power plant design and other operational qualifications. Company ecology The operation and business of the industrial park is deeply compatible. Catalyst: Adachi Environmental Protection Industrial Park project launched. Risk Factors: Project order execution falls short of expectations.

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