Main points of investment
The company's one-chain three-body business pattern, strong product profits. With "m-amino" products as the mother core, the company extends downwards to produce dye intermediates and pharmaceutical intermediates such as "2pyrine 5 acid", "m-hydroxyl" and "m-aminophenol". In addition, the solid waste produced in the production process of "m-amino" is deeply processed, and fiber intermediates such as "3-amino-3-dinitrodiphenyl sulfone" are developed and produced, thus realizing the extension cycle of the products and forming a "one-chain and three-body" business pattern. In 2017, the company's main product, m-aminophenol, achieved an operating income of 153 million yuan, an increase of 151.01% over the same period last year. ODB2 achieved an operating income of 113 million yuan, an increase of 287.58% over the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2018, the company achieved operating income of 273 million yuan, an increase of 176.06% over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in sales volume and sales price of the main products ODB2 and m-aminophenol in this period.
There is a large gap between supply and demand of m-aminophenol. M-aminophenol is not only the upstream of the main raw materials of ODB2, but also the intermediate of medicine, herbicide and sweetener. At present, there are two main domestic supply enterprises, and the company is the absolute leader in the industry, with a production capacity of 2500 tons, of which 1500 tons are used for external supply and 1000 tons for the preparation of ODB2. Affected by environmental factors and tight supply, the supply shrinks obviously, and with the acceleration of product demand in the heat-sensitive industry, the demand gap of m-aminophenol is large, and the price is still expected to rise further.
Thermosensitive material ODB2 has excellent supply and demand pattern, integrated layout of the company and remarkable cost advantage. (1) there is a large gap between supply and demand. Demand side: driven by strong demand and rising prices in the downstream thermal paper industry, the demand for ODB2 has increased steadily. Supply side: the current global production capacity is 11860 tons, due to the impact of environmental protection, the insufficient supply of raw materials m-aminophenol and some ODB2 enterprises stop production or start-up decline, resulting in supply contraction.
Jianxin currently has a production capacity of 1400 tons of ODB2. Due to the shortage of ODB2 and the sharp rise in prices, the company's performance is very flexible. (2) the industrial chain is integrated, and the cost advantage of the company is outstanding. At present, the company has a production capacity of 1400 tons of ODB2, in a leading position in the industry. The production of ODB2 requires raw materials such as m-aminophenol, bromobutane and diphenylamine, all of which can be self-made by the company, so that the company has the advantage of the whole industry chain, and the product cost is much lower than that of similar companies in the industry. Due to the increase in the price of raw materials, such as DPA and diphenylamine, from 50,000 yuan / ton to 150,000 yuan / ton, and the price of m-aminophenol to about 250,000 yuan / ton, the company has an obvious cost advantage for the production of ODB2. In 2017, the company's product ODB2 achieved operating income of 113 million yuan, an increase of 287.58% over the same period last year, and a gross profit margin of 44.49%, an increase of 39.19% over the same period last year.
Profit forecast and rating. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 18-20 years is 1.20,1.32 and 1.31 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 14 times, 13 times and 13 times respectively.
Risk hint: the risk of sharp fluctuations in product prices and the risk of resuming work in enterprises that stop production.