This report is read as follows:
The company's performance is ahead of the industry average, and we are optimistic about the development potential of the company's follow-up large investment banking business, as well as the broad business coordination space brought by the comprehensive financial layout and resource advantages of major shareholders of Oriental assets.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating and maintain the target price of 28.05 yuan per share. The company achieved revenue / return net profit of 3627 million yuan in 2017, which was 3.23% compared with the same period last year, and the performance was in line with expectations. At the end of the reporting period, the net assets of the company returned to its parent was 19.219 billion yuan, up from 4.92% at the end of 2016. Considering the elasticity of investment banking and overseas income, the company will increase its EPS of 0.52 to 0.58 yuan from 2018 to 2020 (EPS from 0.48 to 0.58 yuan before the adjustment), maintain the target price of 28.05 yuan per share and increase its holdings.
The business strength of large investment banks has been further enhanced, and breakthroughs have been made in overseas business. The customer structure of ① brokerage business has been continuously optimized, and value-added services have helped stabilize the comprehensive commission rate: during the reporting period, the company's commission rate fell by only 1.4% compared with the same period last year, and the share of the stock base market decreased slightly from 1.05% at the end of 16th. The collaborative management model of headquarters and branches has been further developed. ② Dongxing Hong Kong will become a new profit growth point for the company in the next step: overseas business accounts for 10% of the company's revenue during the reporting period, and breakthroughs have been made in all core businesses; breakthroughs have been made in ③ 's investment banking business, and the business structure has been further optimized:
During the reporting period, the net income of the investment bank entered the top 20 of the industry. In the future, it will continue to further optimize the business structure and talent structure, and strengthen cooperation with major shareholders to provide comprehensive financial services to clients through various modes such as "investment + investment bank". ④ 's large asset management business is still a traditional advantage, and the company will continue to vigorously cultivate active management capabilities: during the reporting period, the active management scale exceeded 60 billion, accounting for more than 50%, and the average daily size of public offering funds increased by 128% compared with the same period last year, which is a new performance growth point in the future.
The controlling shareholders have completed the lead war, laying a solid foundation for public listing, which will further integrate high-quality resources at home and abroad, and it is expected that the scale and income of business coordination between the company and major shareholders will reach a new high.
Catalyst: landing of related innovative business; improvement of market activity
Risk hint: the decline in the stock market brings a double decline in brokerage performance and valuation; supervision is strengthened.