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文科园林(002775)季报点评:业绩稳增确定性强 战略转型生态文旅新航向

國金證券 ·  May 3, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The Performance Review Company released its 2018 quarterly report, achieving revenue/net profit of 414/16 million dollars, +43.41%/+48.61% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The company expects the H1 net profit range to vary between 1.29 and 171 million yuan in 2018, an increase of 25% to 65%. Business analysis performance continues to grow, and operating efficiency is steadily improving. 1) 2018 Q1 revenue/net profit of 4.14/016 million, a year-on-year increase of 43.41%/48.61%, mainly due to high order growth, 122 new orders were signed in Q1 in 2018, reaching 1.37 billion yuan, and the high growth was sustainable; 2) The company's net profit margin in Q1 in 2018 was 3.85% up 0.14pct from the same period last year, and the period expenses remained stable at 12.32% compared to the same period last year. The management expenses rate also decreased 2.46pct to 8.55%. The company's operating efficiency improved, and financial expenses increased. The same increase was 2.47pct to 3.77%, mainly due to an increase in bank loans; 3) the company's 2018 Q1 reported asset value losses of 2,2038 million yuan, an increase of 149.79% over the previous year, which accounted for a large number of bad debts; 4) The company's net operating cash flow in Q1 2018 was 237 million, down 7.39% from the same period last year; 5) The company's total receivables/inventory in Q1 2018 was about 1,540 million yuan, up 37%/14% year on year, respectively, a total of 37%/14% It accounts for 52% of total assets, which is comparable to that of peers. Orders continue to grow steadily, and the strategy is transforming ecological tourism. 1) 2018Q1 has orders of 4,416 million in hand and 122 new orders, totaling 1.37 billion dollars. Full orders and revenue are guaranteed. 2) The company is actively expanding downstream of the garden industry chain and developing business in ecological and cultural tourism. The 2018Q1 cash payment for the purchase of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets increased by 136.27% to establish a liberal arts, ecological technology and landscape design research and development center project. The company also established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Shenzhen Cultural and Cultural Tourism Industry Co., Ltd., in 2017. 3) Ecological protection and environmental management account for a low share of infrastructure investment (less than 3%) and a high growth rate (more than 20%). We believe that the garden industry will maintain a high level of prosperity. The investment proposal predicts that the company's 2018/2019 EPS will be 1.18/1.71 yuan, maintaining the company's target price of 20 yuan from June to December. The corresponding PE valuation for 2018/2019 is 22/15 times, respectively. Risks indicate that accounts receivable have high risk of bad debts, risk of PPP implementation falling short of expectations, and macroeconomic policy risks.

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