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新华联(000620)年报及季报点评:地产业务受政策调控影响放缓 文旅+金融快速推进

興業證券 ·  Apr 26, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: Company announcement: 1) 2017 revenue of 7.441 billion yuan/ -0.99%, net profit of 857 million yuan/ +63.63%, net profit of non-return of net profit of 317 million yuan/ - 35.42%, EPS is 0.45 yuan/share, 1 yuan per 10 shares (tax included); (2) revenue for the first quarter of 2018 was 1,044 million yuan/ +21.88%, net profit of 0.39 million yuan/ -42.29%, net profit of 36 million yuan/+ 229.53%, EPS is 0.02 yuan/share. The growth rate of the real estate business has declined, and the pace of land reserves has slowed down. In 2017, the real estate business revenue was 6.142 billion yuan/ -6.83%, and the gross profit margin was 34.09% /+2.8pct. Affected by strict property market supervision policies, the company's primary and second-tier cities have stabilized, and the scale of real estate transactions has shrunk markedly; the company added 1.2 million m2/-45 percent of the year; the planned construction area is 1.29 million m2/-59 percent; and the pace of land reserves has slowed. The company is committed to the transformation and upgrading of the real estate business, accelerating the development of cultural tourism real estate, and increasing gross margin by 2.8 percentage points. Furthermore, the Sanya Premium Housing Project jointly developed by the company is progressing steadily, with a land area of 35,000 m2 to be developed. The cultural tourism business is advancing rapidly and has become an important pillar of the company's transformation and development. Other business revenue in 2017 was 1,242 million yuan/ +51.14%, mainly cultural tourism and finance. The first phase of the company's Changsha Tongguanyao Cultural Tourism Project has been completed and is expected to open within the year; the east bank of Jiuzi Ancient Town in Wuhu is fully open, the west bank has been fully completed, and the Ocean Show has been fully completed, and the Ocean Show has been put into trial operation; a joint venture was established with major shareholders to establish Xinhualian Children's Dream Park and Children's Dream Kingdom brands. The rapid development of cultural tourism projects can also enhance the appeal of real estate projects and create synergies. The cultural tourism industry is the core direction of the company's future development and deserves continuous tracking. Diversified development of financial services. During the reporting period, the company became the second largest shareholder of Bank of Changsha through a wholly-owned subsidiary. The Asia Pacific Reinsurance Company, which participated in the initiation of the establishment, is awaiting approval from the Insurance Regulatory Commission. Its proposed acquisition of 100% of the shares in the New Silk Road Cultural Tourism Company is progressing steadily. The diversified financial business layout is in line with the company's strategic transformation plan and combines the main business with finance. On the one hand, it shifts from a single real estate development loan to a three-dimensional diversified financing model, and on the other hand, it can share the growth fruits of the financial industry's innovation and development, which will greatly enhance the company's profitability and sustainable development capabilities. Profit forecasting and investment ratings: The company continues to promote the “cultural tourism+finance+real estate” strategic layout, the real estate business is transformed and upgraded, and gross margin continues to rise; the cultural tourism business relies on the Group's strong resource strength to quickly seize high-quality tourism resources, and many projects continue to be fully implemented; the diversified layout of the financial industry broadens financing channels for the real estate business while also enhancing profitability. The cultural tourism industry is the company's core development direction in the future. It is in line with consumption upgrades and national policy guidelines, and is worthy of continuous tracking. The 2018-2020 EPS was raised to 0.51/0.60/0.74 yuan, and the corresponding PE price on April 24 was 12/10/8 times, respectively, maintaining the “prudent increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: fixed increase projects are not progressing smoothly, housing market policies in first-tier cities have been further tightened, and resource integration results have fallen short of expectations

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