Event
The company released its quarterly report for 2018 on the evening of April 26. During the reporting period, the company realized revenue of 274 million yuan, an increase of 176.06% over the same period last year, and an increase of 60.72% over the same period last year. The net profit returned to its home was 114 million yuan, an increase of 223.25% over the same period last year and 115.93% over the previous year. It is expected that the sales revenue and profitability of some of the company's products will increase steadily in the first half of 2018, and the net profit will increase significantly compared with the same period last year.
Brief comment
The price of the product has skyrocketed, and the gross profit margin of the company's products has risen sharply.
During the reporting period, the company's revenue and profit increased significantly, especially the net profit soared by 22 times, mainly due to the simultaneous increase in the volume and price of the main products ODB2 and m-aminophenol: thanks to the dual effects of spontaneous losses in the industry, capacity loss and environmental protection, the main products were in short supply, especially since the fourth quarter of last year, with ODB2 rising from 100000 / ton at the beginning of 2017 to the current 500000 / ton. M-aminophenol has increased from 70,000 / ton to about 250000 / ton at present. Driving the company's 2018Q1 comprehensive gross profit margin of 59.95%, a year-on-year increase of 40.99%, a huge increase.
The rates of sales, management and financial expenses were 0.89%, 8.24% and 1.21% respectively, with year-on-year changes of-0.70%,-4.37% and 1.63% respectively.
Production capacity is cleared spontaneously and environmental protection becomes stricter for a long time, and the price center is expected to maintain a high level.
On the one hand, ODB2 has been in a bear market for nearly 10 years before 2017, and there are many spontaneous clearances in the industry. there are only a few domestic production enterprises, such as Kang Aite, Fukang, Jianxin, Kemelin and so on. Foreign enterprises have almost all withdrawn, and the industry has been greatly optimized. Even if the production enterprises maintain full load, supply and demand are just in tight balance. On the other hand, the main by-product of the company contains aniline industrial wastewater, which is one of the most difficult to treat in the industrial field, with high emissions and difficult to deal with, and competitors are in key treatment cities such as Hebei and Shandong. The main competitors are affected by environmental protection one after another, and the company has continued to invest in the field of environmental protection for many years, and the production capacity has remained at full capacity. On the whole, the phenomenon of tight supply will exist for a long time. The company is expected to benefit from stricter environmental protection and higher profits in the long run.
The thermal sensitive material is the leader of the whole industry chain, and the product has great elasticity.
With "m-amino" products as the mother core, the company extends downward to produce dyes and pharmaceutical intermediates such as "2pyrine 5 acid", "m-hydroxyl", "m-aminophenol" and other dyes and pharmaceutical intermediates, forming a "one-chain, three-body" business pattern, and the m-aminophenol downstream project ODB-2 fully reached production in 2012, forming the whole industry chain of m-amino-m-aminobenzenesulfonate-m-aminophenol-ODB-2 heat-sensitive materials. It has a production capacity of 16000 tons of m-amino group, 9000 tons of 2-amino acid, 4600 tons of m-hydroxyl group, 2000 tons of m-aminophenol and 1000 tons of ODB-2, among which the output of ODB-2, m-aminophenol and m-hydroxyl group has reached the leading level in China and even in the world. When ODB-2 increases 100000 / ton, the company's EPS thickens by 0.13 yuan, and the price of m-aminophenol increases by 100000 / ton, EPS thickens by 0.20 yuan.
It is estimated that from 2018 to 2019, the EPS of the company will be 1.00,1.27 yuan respectively, and the PE will be 10X, 8X, maintaining the buy rating.