Performance Overview 2018Q1 achieved net revenue/return profit of 13/-0.72 billion yuan, an increase of 69.8%/-1667.8% year-on-year. Operating analysis revenue/gross margin has increased, and high-quality future repayments of accounts receivable are worry-free. 1) The company achieved revenue/net profit of 13/ -0.72 billion yuan in Q1, up 69.8%/-1667.8% year on year. The sharp year-on-year decline in net profit due to the 2017 Q1 base was too small. The absolute amount of decline was only 70.27 million yuan; the gross profit margin was 25.87%, up 2.27 pcts year on year, and the net profit margin was -5.57%, down 4.68 pcts year on year. 2) The company's expenses rate during the period reached 32.74%, up 9.39 pcts year on year; the sales rate increased 1.41 pct to 2.47% year on year. The company had 463 sales staff in 2017, an increase of 188% over the same period. The management rate increased by 0.07 pct to 20.06%, mainly due to the stock option fee of 37.86 million yuan, and the finance rate increased by 2.9 pct to 10.21%, due to an increase in current bank loans and a corresponding increase in confirmed interest charges. 3) The number of accounts receivable turnover days decreased by 10.7 days year on year. The quality of revenue was relatively high. Asset impairment loss was 3.768 million yuan, up 16.6% year on year, far lower than the increase in accounts receivable (+62%), and accounts receivable were relatively safe. Advance accounts received amounted to 450 million yuan, an increase of 112.26% year over year, and the interim results are expected to increase significantly. 4) 2018Q1 operating cash flow was -477 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 410.6%. There is some pressure on cash flow. This is a common phenomenon in the process of rapid growth, so there is no need to worry. High increase in orders+worry-free financing, high performance growth and strong certainty. 1) As of Q1, the company had orders of 37.4 billion yuan, considering winning orders of 46.7 billion yuan, and considering pre-winning orders of 51 billion yuan, 6.2 times the 2017 revenue (8.188 billion yuan). Orders continued to increase rapidly. Based on this company's 2018 operating plan, revenue/net profit to mother reached 127/1.14 billion yuan, an increase of 55%/50% over the same period. 2) The market is concerned about the financing implementation of PPP projects. We expect the company to have implemented financing for at least 15 PPP projects or have strong financing certainty. The 3.4 billion notes that have been registered with interbank market transaction agreements (currently remaining 3.2 billion yuan) will be issued at an opportunity in the future, so the company has no financial worries. 3) The company implemented an equity incentive plan in October 2017, granting stock options to the company's senior management and core technical personnel at an exercise price of 12.9 yuan; the second phase of the employee shareholding plan increased their holdings by 28.69 million shares, with an average price of 11.53 yuan; and increased their holdings by 2.08 million shares in February 2018, with an average price of 10.6 yuan; on April 26, the price was 9.78 yuan, and the stock safety margin was high. The investment proposal estimates that the company's 2018/2019 EPS will be 0.79/1.18 yuan/share, maintaining a target price of 17 yuan, corresponding to 22 times PE in 2018. If considering all convertible bonds converted to diluted EPS, the 2018/2019 EPS would be 0.75/1.11 yuan/share, and the target price corresponding to 2018 PE would be 23 times. Risk warning: Continued rise in interest rates has led to rising financing costs, PPP implementation falling short of expectations, and project delivery.
铁汉生态(300197)季报点评:人员扩张等令业绩下滑 静待二季度反转
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