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铁汉生态(300197)季报点评:期间费用率提升拖累业绩 18年高增长趋势不变

平安證券 ·  May 2, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Key investment matters: The company released its 2018 quarterly report. During the reporting period, it achieved revenue of 1300 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +69.80%, net profit of -72 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -1667.80%, net profit after deducting -74 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -1427.82%. Ping An's view: 18Q1 revenue continued to grow at a high rate, and the increase in the cost ratio dragged down performance during the period: the company's 18Q1 revenue continued to grow at a high rate, and the 17Q1-18Q1 revenue growth rates for the single quarter were 92.1%, 93.1%, 94.8%, 62.4%, and 69.8%, respectively. The company's gross margin during the reporting period was 25.87%, up 2.27pct year on year, and the company's period expense ratio was 32.74%, up 4.38pct year on year, of which: sales expense ratio was 2.47%, up 1.41 pct year on year, mainly due to the rapid expansion of the company's business scale and corresponding increase in employee remuneration and office expenses; the management expense ratio was 20.06%, up 0.07pct year on year, mainly because the company accrued 37.86 million yuan in equity incentives and amortization expenses during the reporting period; the financial expense ratio was 10.21%, up 2.90pct year on year. It was mainly due to the increase in the total loan amount of the company in 18Q1 and the increase in market interest rates. New orders remain strong, and sufficient cash on hand will help release performance quickly: the company signed new orders of 6.820 billion yuan in 18Q1, an increase of +1017.90% over the previous year. By the end of March, the company had unfinished orders of 33,076 billion yuan (after deducting 4,051 billion yuan of PPP projects stopped in Xinjiang), and had won 9.329 billion yuan of unsigned orders, a total of 5.18 times the company's revenue in 2017. As of the end of the reporting period, the company's cash on hand reached 3,845 billion yuan, an increase of 119% over the same period last year. Our company has plenty of orders on hand and plenty of cash, which will support the continued high growth of the company's performance in 2018. Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's current PPP orders are full, and sufficient currency and cash will guarantee the smooth progress of the project. The 2018 performance is expected to continue to grow at a high level. Maintain the company's 2018-2020 EPS forecasts of 0.72 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 1.27 yuan, corresponding to the current PE of 13.6 times, 10.0 times, and 7.7 times, respectively, and maintain the “recommended” rating. Risk warning: Project execution falls short of expectations due to the increase in financing costs and the slowdown in financing progress: More than 80% of the company's newly signed projects use the PPP model. If future PPP project financing costs continue to rise and financing progress slows down, it will cause the company's project execution to fall short of expectations and affect the company's revenue growth; accounts receivable risk: the company's accounts receivable are large. If the company cannot collect them in a timely manner in the future, it will have a negative impact on the company's performance; as PPP supervision policies continue to become stricter, project execution falls short of expectations: Due to the continuous tightening of PPP supervision policies, the company has been in Xinjiang since '18 Some PPP projects in the region have been suspended and rectified. If future policies continue to be strengthened and more of the company's projects are suspended, it will adversely affect the company's performance in 2018.

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