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新华联(000620)季报点评:业绩略超预期 文旅项目稳步推进

安信證券 ·  Apr 27, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Event: ① The company released the report for the first quarter of 2018: it completed revenue of 1,044 million yuan/ +21.88% during the period, achieved net profit of 39 million yuan/ -42.29%, and net profit after deducting non-return net profit increased sharply by 229.53% to 36 million yuan; ② The company released the 2017 annual report: overall performance slightly exceeded expectations, and completed revenue of 7.441 billion yuan during the period was the same, and net profit remained at a high growth rate of 857 million yuan/ +63.63%. The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations, and gross margin increased significantly: ① By business: commercial housing sales contributed 6.142 billion yuan/ -6.83% of revenue, which is the company's main business; other businesses accounted for 16.70% of revenue, an increase of 51.14%, reflecting the company's good results in cultural tourism transformation; ② By region: Ningxia/Shanghai/Hunan contributed the top three revenue contributions, and completed revenue of 1,352 billion yuan/ +193.34%, 1,093 million yuan/ -24.75%, and +487.4%; the top three growth rates The regions are Hunan/Ningxia/Jilin; ③ Profitability: The company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 31.80% /+3.09pct during the period, mainly due to the 2.80pct increase in gross margin of commercial housing sales; the gross margin of other businesses increased significantly, achieving a gross profit ratio of 20.95% /+11.50pct; ④ At the fixed asset level: the company's fixed asset hotel was 4,096 billion yuan/ +7.37%, mainly due to the completion and operation of projects under construction and the increase in land assets; construction companies under construction increased more than 3 times over the same period; Mainly due to the intensive construction of self-owned properties this year, due to major changes in projects compared to last year; the real estate settlement cycle is longer, and the increase in the company's fixed assets and projects under construction in 2017 is expected to contribute to the company's performance in the future. ⑤ Non-recurring profit and loss: The company's non-recurring profit and loss in '17 was 541 million yuan, a significant increase from 34 million yuan in '16, mainly due to the company's merger of the Beijing (2016) Chaoyang District Real Estate No. 0142730 held by Beijing Yongsheng Kangda into Beijing Hengxing Changji Asset Management Co., Ltd. for cost control, and packaged and sold non-recurring profit and loss of about 350 million yuan. Tongguanyao is expected to open during the summer, fees for the proposed closure of the ancient town of Jiu'an are intensifying, and the company's revenue from cultural tourism is expected to break through in '19. According to the announcement, in 2018, the company plans to make every effort to ensure the opening and operation of the Tongguanyao project in Changsha during the summer. Considering that the Tongguanyao project is one of the company's core projects in cultural tourism transformation, and that demand for leisure tours is strong in the Changzhu Tan region, and that the rich business formats of the scenic area itself, such as tickets+hotel+dining+entertainment+entertainment+store rent, etc., lay a solid foundation for the operating income of the scenic area, we expect the project to achieve 5 million visitors during the mature period, and operating profit during the mature period to reach 279 million yuan (company announcement). Furthermore, since the ancient town of Jiaogan is currently only being built on the east coast, admission is still free even when the west bank has not been opened, so the performance of the ancient town's operating performance has not yet been measured. This time, the company plans to speed up construction on the West Bank and prepare for the closure of the park. It is expected that expectations that tickets will begin to be collected as a whole will be strengthened later, which will benefit the overall revenue of the scenic area. Real estate projects focus on first-tier and hot cities to provide a stable cash flow guarantee strategic transformation. In 017, the company's real estate business achieved revenue of 6.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.83%, mainly due to the tightening of first-hand housing sales in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and other places. According to the announcement, the company added 1.2011 million square meters of land within 17 years, and its land reserves reached 2.2462 million square meters by the end of 17. The sharp increase in land reserves has laid a solid foundation for subsequent good performance. In 2018, in addition to projects in Shanghai, Changsha, Tangshan, Wuhan and other places that continue to sell well, the company will enter a number of new projects in the Shanghai Economic Circle, Tianjin, Sanya and other places. Abundant saleable resources are expected to continue to increase the company's performance and cash flow, and promote the smooth transformation of the company to the strategic layout of “cultural tourism+real estate+finance”. Investment advice: Give a buy-A investment rating. In 2018, the company's projects such as Jiuzi Ancient Town in Wuhu, Tongguanyao in Changsha, and Xining International Resort progressed steadily, and the company's “cultural tourism+finance” business is expected to enter a period of continuous harvest. The company's net profit for 2018-2020 is estimated to be 1,090/13.10/1,570 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.57/0.69/0.83, and corresponding PE of 10.3x/8.6x/7.2x, respectively, with a target price of 8.21 yuan for 6 months. Risk warning: 1) industry risk; 2) financial risk; 3) overseas business risk

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