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文科园林(002775)年报点评:业绩高增长符合预期 生态和旅游是战略方向

招商證券 ·  Apr 28, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Events: The company achieved revenue of 2,565 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 69.10% over the previous year; net profit of the mother was 244 million yuan, an increase of 74.96% over the previous year, and EPS of 0.98 yuan. The company expects revenue of 4 billion yuan in 2018, an increase of 55.92% year on year, and net profit of 368 million yuan, an increase of 50.7% year on year. Comment: 1. The high growth was in line with expectations, and the performance growth rate increased quarter by quarter. The company achieved high revenue growth in 2017, mainly because 1) Ecological environmental protection became a national strategy in '17, and the overall trend of the company's industry was good; 2) the company's business scale expanded and orders were sufficient. The new framework agreements and major orders announced by the company in 2017 exceeded 5 billion, including municipal administration, ecological restoration, and tourism. By industry, garden engineering revenue was 2,495 billion yuan, an increase of 70.07%. The large increase was mainly due to the company's increased pioneering efforts in the fields of ecological management and infrastructure construction and achieved steady growth in performance. Garden design revenue was 62.4353 million yuan, an increase of 30.36%, garden maintenance revenue was 8.213,300 yuan, an increase of 260.36%; by region, Northeast China's revenue increased by 60.36%, East China's revenue increased by 157.84%, South China's revenue increased by 62.11%, North China's revenue increased by 131.7 percent, and Central China's revenue increased by 131.7 percent. At 26.70%, revenue in the southwest increased by 70.38%, and revenue in the northwest increased by 104.11%. The rapid growth rate in all regions was mainly due to the fact that the business covered the whole country, each region had project construction or business teams, and had a good foundation for developing business expansion; on a quarterly basis, Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 achieved revenue of 2.89, 8.61, 7.80 and 635 million yuan respectively, up 60.60%, 118.97%, 77.09% and 26.24%, Q4 growth declined significantly; Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 net Profits were 0.11, 0.93, 0.70 million and 71 million yuan respectively, increasing by 44.21%, 71.63%, 73.60% and 86.84%, respectively. The growth rate increased quarterly. The net profit growth rate was slightly higher than the revenue growth rate, mainly due to the reduction in the period's expense ratio, especially the large decline in the management expense ratio. 2. Gross margin decreased by 2.1 pp, net interest rate increased slightly, and debt ratio increased slightly. The company's gross margin fell 2.1 pp to 18.77%, mainly because the gross profit of landscape engineering, which accounts for a relatively large share, fell by 1.95 pp, and the company's net profit margin increased by 0.32 pp to 9.52% during the period. In terms of expenses, the management expense ratio decreased by 1.81 pp to 5.23%, mainly because the company strengthened performance management and continued to improve management efficiency, and the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.24 pp to 0.97%. In terms of cash flow, net operating cash flow -- 129 million yuan -- deteriorated markedly, mainly due to an increase in company orders, an expansion in business scale, and an increase in cash for purchasing goods and receiving labor payments. Revenue decreased 19.78 ppp to 61.77% compared to the same period last year. The debt ratio rose slightly, rising 0.54 pp to 43.98%. 3. Consolidate traditional fields and open up new fields. Business and investment drive. In the future, the company will focus on development opportunities in ecological and environmental protection, infrastructure construction, tourism resource planning, construction and operation, and focus on developing cultural tourism aspects. At the same time, in order to implement the company's business and investment two-wheel drive strategy, it will increase investment, mergers and acquisitions, and strategic cooperation in ecological, environmental, tourism and other fields to achieve complementary resources and common development. 4. Traditional business is developing steadily, actively expanding municipal administration, PPP and other businesses, maintaining the “Highly Recommended - A” rating, consolidating real estate and gardens, and actively expanding municipal administration, PPP and other businesses, bringing new growth points. It is estimated that the EPS for 18 and 19 will be 1.13/1.63 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 14.7/10.2 times, maintaining the “Highly Recommended - A” rating. 5. Risk warning: business development falls short of expectations, repayment risk, investment risk

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