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美晨生态(300237)季报点评:一季报业绩高增长 全年高成长可期

新時代證券 ·  Apr 27, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company released its 2018 quarterly report. From January to January 2018, the company achieved a total revenue of 688 million yuan, an increase of 21.11% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 129 million yuan, an increase of 66.70% over the previous year. Comment: The net interest rate increased significantly, and the rate rate rose slightly during the period: the company's consolidated gross profit margin for the first quarter of this year was 35.96%, down 0.4% year on year; net profit margin was 18.90%, up 5.34% year on year. The rate for the first quarter was 21.66%, up 1.97 percentage points from the same period last year. Specifically, the sales/management/finance rates were 7.02%/9.85%/4.80% respectively, up 1.03/0.06/0.89 percentage points from the same period last year. The increase in sales rates is mainly due to an increase in the scope of consolidation in the garden sector and post-maintenance costs arising from newly completed projects; the increase in financial rates is mainly due to the expansion of business scale, increased capital requirements, and increased interest expenses due to increased loans. Operating cash flow declined slightly, and investment and financing cash flow improved: the company's net cash flow from operating activities in January-March was -183 million yuan, down 18.7% year on year, mainly due to late invoicing, delayed repayment, and early reserve inventory due to rising raw material prices; net cash flow from investment activities was -215 million yuan, up 21.7% year on year; net cash flow from financing activities was 183 million yuan, up 389.29% year on year, mainly due to the expansion of the company's business scale and capital This is due to increased demand and increased borrowing. Focusing on the core business of ecological construction, there are plenty of orders in hand, and there is plenty of momentum for performance growth: the company focuses on the core business of ecological construction, keeps up with the rapid development of the PPP market, has a complete industrial ecological chain, a professional design team, a good nursery base, and a construction team that has been deeply involved in the garden industry for many years. The speed of project order implementation is gradually accelerating. In the first quarter of this year, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary in the garden sector signed an order amount of 115 million yuan for the new competition garden project, and won 341 million yuan of unsigned orders; by the end of the reporting period, the company had signed a total of 5.421 billion yuan of unfinished orders, including 5.335 billion yuan for engineering orders and 86 million yuan for design orders. Corresponding to last year's revenue of 2,626 billion yuan in the garden sector, the order revenue guarantee ratio is more than double. The company has sufficient orders in hand, and the future performance is high and full of momentum for growth. Financial forecasting and valuation: The company is expected to achieve net profit of 8.79/12.30/1,659 million yuan from 2018 to 2020, an increase of 44.3%/39.9%/34.8% year-on-year, corresponding EPS of 1.09/1.52/2.05 yuan. The current stock price is 14.2/10.1/7.5 times PE from 2018 to 2020, maintaining the “Highly Recommended” rating. Risk warning: PPP business model risk, epitaxial expansion risk, repayment risk, etc.

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