Key points
Event: the company announced its first-quarter results in 2017 and 2018, with revenue of 2.47 billion yuan in 2017, down 63.1% from the same period last year, and net profit of 265 million yuan, down 62.4% from the same period last year, with an EPS of 0.19 yuan per share. At the same time, the company lost about 79.54 million yuan in net profit in the first quarter of 2018, compared with a profit of 85.36 million yuan in the same period last year.
The decline in the company's 17 years and 18Q1 performance is mainly due to a sharp decline in settlement income from real estate projects. In 2017, the company's performance declined sharply due to the impact of real estate regulation and the slow progress of the Yanjiao project of environmental protection inspectors around Beijing. In 2017, the company only partially handed over income and profits from projects such as Sanxiang four Seasons Flower City Mudanyuan (Shanghai Songjiang) and Sanxianghai Shangyun Mansion (Shanghai Chongming). In addition, Guilin Guanwei Wenhua bankruptcy restructuring of Guangxi Wenhua Art held by the company, which had previously invested in Guangxi Wenhua Art, provided for asset impairment losses, resulting in a sharp decline in 2017 performance. The Q1 loss in 2018 was also caused by a sharp drop in carry-over income from real estate projects.
Real estate business positioning in high-end, focusing on green technology, 18 prime 19 years is expected to usher in an outbreak of performance. The company has been listed backdoor for 12 years, and its real estate business is "small and beautiful", focusing on green technology real estate. The real estate business is mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The scale of the real estate project is small, but the company insists on ploughing the market segment of "green technology real estate". It has leading technical strength in building energy saving, environmental protection, haze prevention and control, smart home and so on. The large fluctuations in the company's performance in the past few years are mainly affected by real estate settlement. At present, the salable and unsettled areas are all located in Shanghai, and the projects under construction are located in Pudong, Pudong, Yanjiao, Hebei and Hangzhou. High-quality real estate reserve projects ensure a stable contribution to performance in the future, and the company's real estate business performance is expected to break out in 1820. Profit forecast and investment rating: the real estate business is currently ploughing the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin wing areas, with high-quality land reserves and low land acquisition costs, providing the company with a margin of safety. At the same time, after the impression enters the capital market, the management mechanism and market-oriented operation are expected to be improved, and the new projects are obviously accelerated after the acquisition. The follow-up combination of weight and coordination with the real estate business is expected, and the performance growth is expected. It is estimated that the EPS for 18-20 years is 0.26 EPS 0.31 shock 0.39 yuan respectively, and the estimated PE for April 25 closing price is 1714x12x to maintain "prudent increase".
Rating.
Risk hints: business synergy is not as expected, cultural tourism expansion is not as expected, and the systemic risk of the real estate cultural industry.