Core viewpoints
Guangshengtang is a pioneer in the field of nucleoside anti-hepatitis B drugs, focusing on the R & D, production and sales of nucleoside anti-hepatitis B drugs. The company's leading products include adefovir dipivoxil, lamivudine, entecavir, tenofovir and other nucleoside anti-hepatitis B drugs. At present, the company is the only pharmaceutical company with four major nucleoside anti-hepatitis B drugs and preparations registered and approved at the same time, with a complete product line.
Tenofovir went public last year and was included in health insurance, and revenue is expected to grow rapidly. Tenofovir completed negotiations in 2016 and cut prices by 67%. Tenofovir was successfully included in health insurance in 2017. In addition, tenofovir has the advantages of zero drug resistance and availability to pregnant women, with global sales of US $11.1 billion in 2016, but its market share is still low in China. On July 7, 2017, the company officially listed tenofovir in imitation of hepatitis B adaptation disease. In 2017, sales revenue totaled 9.2176 million yuan, accounting for 3.11% of the company's operating income. With the positive effects of falling prices and new health insurance, the product's revenue is expected to grow rapidly in the future.
New drugs for non-alcoholic fatty liver and liver cancer or IND has made significant achievements in cooperation with Wuxi Apptec in the research and development of drugs for non-alcoholic fatty liver and liver cancer. Both GST-HG151 and GST-HG161 plan to submit clinical research (IND) applications to both CFDA and FDA in 2018.
For the first time, coverage will be rated as "overweight".
It is estimated that the operating income of the company from 2018 to 2020 is 4.06,5.60 and 750 million yuan respectively, and the net profit belonging to the shareholders of the parent company is 0.46,0.61 and 80 million yuan, equivalent to EPS0.33, 0.43,0.56 yuan per share, and the corresponding PE is 89.06,68.35,52.48 times respectively. At present, the industry PE (TTM, excluding negative value) is 41.76 times, considering that tenofovir is in a period of market expansion, future revenue is expected to usher in high growth, while the company has high-quality R & D pipelines, which can give a certain valuation premium, covering the "overweight" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: slow market expansion of tenofovir; risk of new drug research and development; strategic benefits are not up to expectations.