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珠江钢琴(002678)年报点评:高端产品增长良好 国企改革再进一步

國金證券 ·  Apr 22, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  Performance Overview In 2017, the company achieved revenue/net profit of 1,790 million yuan/165 million yuan respectively, an increase of 14.30%/8.72% year-on-year respectively, and achieved a fully diluted EPS of 0.17 yuan, which was basically in line with expectations. The company's 2017 distribution plan is to increase 3 shares for every 10 shares and distribute a cash dividend of 4.00 yuan (tax included). In 2018, the company's revenue/net profit to mother increased by 12.73%/6.21% respectively in Q1. Management analysis Accelerated growth of high-end products. In 2017, the company's sales volume of 144,700 pianos increased by 8.51%, and sales prices increased by 7.68%. Among them, sales of the high-end Fort Caesars series increased by 13.40%, and the growth rate increased by 2.66 pcts. At the same time, the acquired German Schumier piano also sold 4,461 units. Precisely because of the good growth of high-end products, the company's piano business revenue recorded an increase of 14.73%, the highest growth rate in the past 5 years. The growth of high-end products accelerated, leading to further optimization of the company's product structure, and an increase in overall ability to resist price increases of raw materials. The annual gross margin increased by 1.79 pct over the same period last year. Art education has progressed in great strides, and fixed increases have been completed to accelerate the development of the cultural industry. The company continues to promote art education. In particular, the layout of art classrooms was greatly accelerated in the second half of last year, adding 232 (only 56 in the first half of the year), bringing the total number to 600. The company's fixed increase was completed in August of last year, and the funds raised will mainly be used for the development of the arts and culture business. Fixed additional capital projects such as the Cultural Industry Innovation and Entrepreneurship Incubation Park are progressing in an orderly manner. We are optimistic that with capital help, the company's cultural industry layout will accelerate and growth will accelerate. National reform went one step further, and Emmerson was listed on the third board. The company's holding subsidiary, Amoson (mainly engaged in digital pianos), completed a capital increase and stock expansion in December of last year to introduce combat investment, and was listed on the new 3rd board on April 4 this year. Digital pianos have more entertainment and more usage functions, and are one of the development directions of the industry. Currently, traditional Chinese pianos account for about 80% of global sales, while digital piano consumption is only 16.67% of the world. There is huge room for future development, which is the company's key business direction. By introducing core key personnel to work and listing on the third board, the company combines the interests of all parties to maximize motivation, which is conducive to the long-term rapid development of the digital piano business. Profit prediction and investment advice The company actively extends the culture and education industry on the basis of strengthening the main piano business, and strives to strengthen the main piano business and expand the cultural industry. We predict that the company's annual EPS will be 0.19/0.23/0.27 yuan after full dilution in 2018-2020 (three-year CAGR 20.2%), corresponding PE score 54/44/37 times, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk factors Fundraising progress falls short of expected risk; industry competition increases risk; management risk of cultural industry expansion.

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