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西藏药业(600211)年报点评:新活素放量可期 依姆多增长稳健

財通證券 ·  Apr 4, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The public performance is in line with expectations. Optimistic about future performance growth, the company recently announced its 2017 annual report, achieving revenue of 916 million yuan (+14.91%), net profit of 230 million yuan (+15.81%), net profit after deduction of 161 million yuan (-3.60%), and basic EPS of 1.365 yuan (+0.37%). The performance is basically in line with expectations. Excluding exchange losses due to euro loans, net profit after deducting non-refundable net profit increased by 27.48%; exchange losses of 52.04 million yuan occurred due to the failure of Imdo projects to raise funds and return loans in a timely manner, but the 49.87 million gains from debt restructuring were offset by exchange gains and losses. Overall, I am optimistic about the company's future performance growth. The core product, Neoactin, is highly competitive. After being included in medical insurance, it is expected that new active agents (recombinant human brain natriuretic peptides) are a new type of national biological product developed independently. Genetically engineered drugs for the treatment of acute heart failure can quickly improve the symptoms and signs of heart failure in patients with heart failure, improve the quality of life of patients, reduce the cost of hospitalization for heart failure, and shorten the length of hospitalization for patients. The company exclusively produces domestically, filling the gap in domestic genetically-engineered drugs to treat acute heart failure. In 2017, the new biotin was included in category B of the “National Catalogue of Drugs for Basic Medical Insurance, Work Injury Insurance and Maternity Insurance (2017 Edition)”. More than 20 provinces across the country have implemented new negotiated prices, and prices have been lowered, but in the long run, it will facilitate the expansion of the market share and market layout, and will have a positive effect on future sales growth and long-term development. In 2017, the sales volume of new active drugs reached 620,000, achieving revenue of 380 million yuan (+67.44%). It is expected to maintain a steady growth of more than 20% in 2018. With the gradual expansion of health insurance, there is room for at least 3-5 times growth in the future. Overall, Imdo is doing well, and overseas revenue is stable. Imdo occupies an important position in drugs used for coronary heart disease as a first-line drug for anti-ischemic treatment. Currently, sales networks in overseas markets are progressing smoothly. The markets that have completed handover cover 22 countries and regions. The sales amount of the regions that have completed handover accounts for about 84% of the total amount, 32 transfer trademarks, and 15 countries and regions that have completed MA conversion work. In 2017, the sales volume was 35 million boxes (+52.32%), achieving revenue of 250 million yuan, net profit of 16.39 million yuan, and 87.15% of the completed profit forecast of 18.80.41 million US dollars. After deducting the influence of exchange rates and other factors, the Imduo project achieved net profit of about US$205.888 million, and completed the profit forecast of about 109.49%. The overall state of overseas revenue is good. Profit forecast and investment recommendations We expect 2018-2020 revenue of 10.62/12.75/1,529 billion yuan, net profit of 2.86/3.63/461 million yuan, EPS of 1.59/2.02/2.57 yuan, corresponding PE of 22/17/14 times, giving an investment rating of “increased holdings”. Risk warning: New bioactive drug sales are lower than expected; Imduol's production transformation progress is low expectations

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