Beautiful answer paper driven by multimodal transport mode

In 17 years, the company completed 2.45 million TEU billing boxes, an increase of 42.0 percent over the same period last year, and revenue achieved a growth rate of 78.0 percent over the same period last year, of which revenue from railway sections expanded 85 times over the same period last year. Gross profit for the whole year increased by 25.5 percent over the same period last year, and net profit increased by 37.7 percent. Mainly because of increasing the allocation of transport capacity throughout the year and increasing the integration of other transport resources and stations, the company's "door-to-door integration" service capacity has been comprehensively enhanced, covering more customer groups, especially consumer goods customers with higher added value; thanks to the advantages of multimodal transport, Antong has significant advantages over other companies and sectors in the industry in terms of growth and stability.

Analysis of the core advantages and enterprise characteristics of multimodal transport

We believe that the core advantages of multimodal transport are: 1) the extension of the transport chain: to meet the door-to-door demand; 2) the extension of the value chain: to earn the added value of the whole journey; and 3) the expansion of the service radius: from the coastal to inland, it will be extended to overseas in the future. Multimodal transport enterprises with integrated resources should have the following characteristics:

1) have core assets on the logistics side; 2) have a certain influence and market share on the logistics side; 3) have market-oriented marketing ability; 4) the market volume is large enough; 5) mature container transportation is a natural carrier that can reduce the replacement link. Antong Holdings has the characteristics of privatization mechanism, core shipping assets and high industry concentration in the domestic market, so it naturally has the advantage of transforming multimodal transport.

Railway Integration is the only way for the Development of Multimodal Transport and the Railway practice of Antong

1) Railway freight resources have both economy, efficiency and safety, which can effectively improve the depth of the network. With the constant release of traditional passenger lines to freight transport and the promotion of railway reform, at present, railway resources have great room for marketization. 2) the replacement cost of freight transport with containers as standard carriers can be reduced to the lowest in three modes of transport (railway, water transport, road). 3) in 2017, Antong Holdings set up 18 railway outlets, more than 40 direct railway business lines and more than 130 sea rail lines, involving 527 business railway stations, railway services covering 31 provinces and 65 cities, and realized railway natural cabinet transport volume of about 130000 in the whole year. Railway revenue is about 755 million yuan, compared with 8.9 million yuan in 2016, achieving a great-leap-forward growth, accounting for 11.12% of the company's revenue.

Our prediction of the company's long-term strategy

First of all, the company may adopt the strategy of "pulling the wire into a network" in the railway section, and will overlay with the original highway and waterway network to improve customer coverage and continue to optimize service quality. Secondly, the company will look for excellent stations, warehouses and logistics base resources in the logistics network nodes, strengthen the control of goods, and cut into the more difficult and higher value-added dangerous chemicals and cold chain markets. and through on-site, project logistics and other ways to deeply develop key customers, at the same time, matching information management and supply chain financial services will further strengthen the viscosity with customers The fixed increase plan announced by the company already includes the Tangshan seaport multimodal transport base and Quanzhou multimodal transport base project.

Profit forecast and valuation

Antong Holdings multimodal transport, integrated warehousing, characteristic logistics and other diversified development strategy has entered an accelerated period, is constantly building the company's moat, to achieve the industry average profit growth performance. Affected by the recent sharp adjustment in the international market, the company has overfallen since the resumption of trading, and the current price-to-price ratio is prominent. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2018-19 will be 0.76,0.96 yuan (originally 0.76,0.92 yuan), and 20 years EPS1.14 will be added. The 18-year average PE27.1x of the comparable company is selected. Considering the high growth of the company's performance, the current stock price of CAGR30%, in 2017-20 corresponds to PEG less than 1, giving the company a certain valuation premium of 24 yuan, and the corresponding valuation is 31.6,25.0,21.0x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hint: the macroeconomic decline is higher than expected, and the layout process of multimodal transport is lower than expected.