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北部湾旅(603869)年报点评:新智认知迈出转型步伐 旅游业务有望提升

興業證券 ·  Apr 12, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The company announced that it achieved revenue of 2,512 billion yuan in 2017, up 173.01% year on year, net profit up 58.44% year on year, net profit after deduction of 233 million yuan (non-recurring profit and loss is mainly government subsidies), up 39.19% year on year, EPS is 0.77 yuan/share, and plans to distribute 2.5 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares; the company plans to achieve revenue of 3.5 billion yuan in 2018, operating costs account for no more than 60% of revenue, and control the share of revenue for the period at 24% within. Comment: The difference in timing led to a significant increase in performance, and the technology sector continued to grow at a high rate. During the reporting period, revenue of 2,512 billion yuan was achieved, up 173.01% year on year. Among them, industry perception solutions business revenue was 1,686 billion yuan, up 368.98% year on year, and travel business revenue was 750 million yuan, up 54.30% year on year; industry perception solutions business achieved net profit of 164.329 million yuan, up 18.90% year on year under the same caliber, exceeding performance promises by 10%, exceeding performance promises for two consecutive years. The travel business is expected to achieve net profit of 70 million yuan. The year-on-year decline was 30%. Tourism sector: The new business layout continues to advance, and the Beiwei Line is guaranteed. In terms of marine tourism route services, the company operates the three major marine tourist routes Beihai-Weizhou Island, Beihai-Haikou, and Penglai-Long Island, as well as marine tourism services such as sea tours and island tours around the Beihai, Weizhou, Yantai, and Qinhuangdao regions. Among them, tourist routes, scenic spots and travel services achieved revenue of 568 million yuan, 104 million yuan and 77 million yuan respectively, an increase of 43.52%, 175.98% and 47.97%, respectively; “Xunxian 1” and “Xunxian 2” are expected to invest about 60 million yuan in 2018. Operation; The 750-seater passenger ship on the Beiwei route is currently undergoing hull construction and is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2018. Furthermore, the ticket price for the Pengchang route increased by 50% to 45 yuan from the fourth quarter of last year, which will drive 18-year performance growth. At the same time, the company is also actively expanding health and cultural tourism products to increase gross profit margin. Technology sector: New intellects are taking transformative steps. As an industry perception solution provider, Xinzhi Cognition, a wholly-owned subsidiary, mainly targets the fields of smart safety, smart transportation, smart tourism, etc., and is driven by customers' first-line business scenarios. Based on a deep understanding of the business needs of industry customers, it provides industry customers with industry cognitive solutions including data collection, analysis, processing, mining, and application through innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data analysis, and cloud computing. The National Engineering Laboratory Integrated Demonstration Center, an integrated scheduling platform led in '17, was officially completed, and the implementation of subsequent projects is expected to accelerate; the industry recognition business will focus on its own superior industries, consolidate customized implementation capabilities, forge operational service capabilities, and build core technologies such as massive high-concurrency real-time data engines, open “cloud+edge+end” platform ecology, and industry artificial intelligence integration to create the two core competencies of enabling consulting methodologies and data intelligent decision-making systems to empower supply-side customers in the digital economy era. Profit forecast and investment rating: Both the tourism and technology sectors are progressing steadily and are in a stage of rapid growth. As the company accelerates its seizure of high-quality scenic spots and routes, the gradual deepening of the understanding of the tourism resources industry will achieve results in the development of advanced tourism products and the extension of the industrial chain. The early project investment period will temporarily limit short-term performance; the technology sector will continue to grow rapidly with its own solid technical advantages, controlling shareholders' capital, government resource advantages, and growing market demand. Currently, the company's tourism+technology is gradually becoming a key investment direction for controlling shareholders. In the future, it is expected to rely on the controlling shareholders' strong capital and resource strength to achieve rapid growth. Driven by “end+cloud” technology and innovative data, from a traditional project product integration model (IT) to industry recognition services (OT), we are lowering the company's profit forecast for 18-19. The company's 18-20 EPS is expected to be 0.94/1.15/1.38 yuan, respectively. The closing price on April 11, 2018 corresponds to PE of 24/20/16 times, and is maintained “Prudent increase” rating. Risk warning: Passenger flow growth/new routes/new business expansion fall short of expectations; Xinzhi recognizes that new orders fall short of expectations, and mergers and acquisitions progress/transformation fall short of expectations.

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