Events:
Company announcement: results forecast for the first quarter of 2018, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 12.3484 million yuan to 14.2982 million yuan, an increase of 90% 120% over the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
2018Q1 profit doubled: the company's Q1 performance forecast in 2018 showed a 90% increase in net profit over the same period last year, with a net profit of 1234.84-14.2982 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in the company's trading platform construction and maintenance business. The high performance growth rate reflects the smooth progress of the company's business, and we believe that the company's current focus on the development of supply chain service business will continue to land and usher in a good opportunity for development.
Supply chain service is progressing smoothly: the company is committed to providing solutions for the on-line and financialization of traditional sales. Around the Wangsheng bulk trading ecosystem, the company helps companies speed up the realization of online and financialization. In January 2017, the company signed private trading platform construction agreements with nearly 700 enterprises, and the number is still increasing. The company provides supply chain financial services for enterprises based on the platform, and the main source of profit is divided into three parts. Platform construction fee: free in the early stage and will be explored gradually in the later stage. two。 Financial service fee: the company provides guarantee service to the downstream buyer, and the buyer pays the guarantee fee. 3. Transaction fee: the transaction fee shall be paid by the seller when the goods are delivered. At present, the company has opened up part of the banking system, and some enterprises have realized the supply chain financial service model. We expect that more enterprise platforms will be landed in the future.
Bulk e-commerce to meet the development opportunity, supply chain finance cut into the pain point: B2C e-commerce development has matured, B2B e-commerce can help enterprises reduce costs and efficiency, is still a blue ocean. Among them, because the commodity trading has the characteristics of huge transaction volume and frequent price fluctuations, bulk e-commerce is expected to take the lead in the rise. Supply chain finance can effectively solve the problem of B-end transaction receivables, reduce the financial pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises, and effectively solve the pain points of enterprises. At the same time, according to the statistics of the central bank, only accounts receivable between enterprises in China has reached 26 trillion, and the supply chain financial market is huge. We are optimistic about the development prospect of the company as a chemical bulk e-commerce to build supply chain financial services.
Earnings forecast and investment rating: maintain the "buy" rating, the company's supply chain services gradually landed, Q1 performance nearly doubled the growth rate in 2017, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the company's development, and adjust the company's profit forecast according to the company's annual performance KuaiBao. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2019 to 2019 is 0.07, 0.40, 1.38 yuan, corresponding to the PE valuation of 673, 12637 times. Based on the rapid landing of the company's business and the leading position of B2B e-commerce, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: (1) the risk that the company's business progress is not as expected; (2) the risk that the company's performance does not meet expectations; and (3) market systemic risk.