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中原证券(601375)年报点评:期货与股票质押大幅增长 期待投行改善

海通證券 ·  Apr 4, 2018 02:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The only corporate securities company in Henan, and the A+H listing financing capacity has been greatly improved. Internet finance accelerated in '17, and futures brokerage and stock pledge businesses grew dramatically. The performance of the investment banking business was average. Asset management revenue +45% year-on-year. The target price is 6.26 yuan, giving it a “neutral” rating. [Event] Zhongyuan Securities achieved operating income of 2.148 billion yuan in 2017, up 6% year on year; realized net profit of 442 million yuan, down 38% year on year; corresponding to EPS of 0.11 yuan. As of the end of December 2017, the company's total assets were 40.661 billion yuan, up 1% year on year; net assets were 10.170 billion yuan, down 4% year on year. The promotion of Internet financial services has been accelerated, and futures brokerage and stock staking have increased dramatically. In 2017, the company's brokerage revenue was 544 million yuan, -24% over the same period; the commission rate was 0.041%, and the stock market volume accounted for 0.52%. Continuing to promote Internet finance business, sales of Internet platform products reached 3.397 billion yuan, an increase of 256% over the previous year. At the end of '17, the balance of the two loans reached 5.742 billion yuan, with the market accounting for 0.6%. Stock pledges did not decompress the market capitalization balance of 14.4 billion yuan, +67% year-on-year; interest income was realized at about 168 million yuan, an increase of 9.80% over 2016. At the end of '17, the initial transaction amount to be repurchased was $4.602 billion, an increase of 93.93% over the end of 2016. Zhongyuan Futures achieved annual revenue of 394 million yuan, +294.69% year-on-year; total profit of 29.16 million yuan, +13.28% year-on-year, and a return on net assets of 5.3%. The performance of the investment banking business was average. In 2017, the company's investment banking business fee revenue was 117 million yuan, -62% over the same period last year. Stock underwriting income in 2017 was 0, and 15 financial advisory projects were completed. Actively carry out recommended listings on the New Third Board and targeted additional distribution services. In '17, 25 companies were listed on the New Third Board, and targeted financing on the New Third Board was completed 21 times, with a financing amount of 365 million yuan. Completed 3 corporate bond orders, 1 corporate bond project, 1 financial bond project, and fixed income business underwriting amount of 4.830 billion yuan. Revenue from asset management business has increased dramatically, and the scale of pooled and targeted asset management has increased. In 2017, the asset management business revenue was 92 million yuan, +45% over the same period last year. The total asset management scale in '17 was 21 billion yuan. Aggregated product scale was 6.749 billion yuan, +46% year on year; targeted business scale was 13.3 billion yuan, +110.53% year on year; and special asset management scale was 1,043 billion yuan. The subsidiary Zhongding Open Source initiated the establishment of 2 private equity funds with a total management scale of 523.5 million yuan. The Science and Technology Innovation Fund completed 6 investment orders with a total amount of 98 million yuan. In terms of alternative investment, the performance of the subsidiary Zhongzhou Blue Ocean increased dramatically. Thanks to the increase in paid-up capital in 2017 from 330 million yuan to 2,326 billion yuan, the investment amount increased significantly. [Investment Suggestion] The company expects net profit of 456 million yuan to return to the mother in 2018, +3% year-on-year; EPS is 0.12 yuan, and BVPS is 2.61 yuan. We believe that the company should be given a higher valuation level than comparable companies of the same type for the following reasons: 1) The company's financial health and stable operations have always adhered to a high dividend rate. Since its listing in Hong Kong in 2014, it has paid cash dividends 6 times, with a cumulative total of nearly $2.8 billion in total dividends. In the dividend plan or plan for three consecutive years, cash dividends accounted for more than 95% of net profit returned to the mother for that year. Long-term stable dividends are conducive to enhancing investors' enthusiasm for allocation, while also demonstrating management's confidence in improving the company's future performance. 2) A+H listing, strong financing capacity, credit business, etc. are expected to accelerate growth. The company was given 2.4x 2018E P/B, with a target price of 6.26 yuan, and a “neutral” rating. Risk warning: The market continues to be sluggish, and market supervision is being further strengthened

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