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赣粤高速(600269)年报点评:通行费收入超预期 非经常性收益同比下降

Comments on the Annual report of Jiangxi-Guangdong Expressway (600269): toll income exceeds expectations and non-recurrent income decreases compared with the same period last year.

廣發證券 ·  Mar 30, 2018 00:00  · Researches

In 2017, the company achieved revenue of 4.327 billion yuan; net profit of 982 million yuan, down 5.33% from the same period last year, mainly because non-recurrent income of 17 years was lower than that of the same period of 16 years; net profit of non-return was 612 million yuan, an increase of 15.9% over the same period last year. Realize earnings per share of 0.42 yuan and dividend per share of 0.17 yuan (including tax).

Toll revenue exceeded the target at the beginning of the year, and gross profit margin continued to rise.

Under the superimposed influence of adverse factors such as the reconstruction and expansion project of Changjiu Expressway and the completion and opening of Dongchang Expressway to form road network diversion, the company actively carried out a series of work, such as road environment improvement, toll marketing and car introduction on the road. for the whole year, the traffic service fee income reached 3.078 billion yuan, an increase of 1.37% over the same period last year, obviously exceeding the operating target of 2.865 billion yuan set by the board of directors at the beginning of the year. Among them, Changzhang and Wenhou were adversely affected by the diversion of Dongchang Expressway, and their income decreased by 14.2% and 39.9% respectively, while the toll income of Jiujing, Changtai and Penghu Expressway increased by 9.1%, 14.7% and 101.7% respectively compared with the same period last year.

In the case of a 1.37 per cent year-on-year increase in toll revenue, highway operating costs fell 2.42 per cent year-on-year, mainly due to a reduction of about 50 million yuan in maintenance costs. The gross profit of the highway operation business was 1.614 billion yuan, an increase of 78 million yuan over the same period last year, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.85% to 52.47%.

The decline in return net profit is mainly due to the fact that the non-recurrent income in 17 years is lower than that in the same period of 16 years.

It is reported that the profit of the company's main highway business increased compared with the same period last year, but the return net profit decreased by 5.33% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the company's non-recurrent income of 509 million yuan in 16 years (investment income from the transfer of shares in Guosheng Securities). The total non-recurrent income in the same period in 17 years was about 370 million yuan, which was lower than that in the same period in 16 years.

It should be noted that in 17 years, the company received a total of 504 million government subsidies, significantly higher than the average year, mainly because some of the subsidies in 16 years were not issued in that year, but postponed to January 17. Without considering the postponement of subsidies, the company's annual government subsidy is generally between 250 million yuan and 300 million yuan.

Investment advice: low valuation and steady growth, give buy rating

With the construction of Changjiu Expressway reconstruction and expansion and the adverse impact of Dongchang Expressway diversion gradually diluted, the company's toll revenue is expected to maintain a steady growth momentum. We predict that the EPS of the company in 18,19 and 20 years will be 0.41,0.44,0.49 yuan respectively, corresponding to the latest closing price PE of 11.9Xprime11.1XP10.0X. The main business of the company's highway operation has stable growth, while the current stock price PB (LF) is only 0.77 times, significantly lower than the industry average, we maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: toll revenue is not up to expectations; toll policy changes; new road diversion; government subsidies are not up to expectations, macroeconomic growth is declining.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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