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神州高铁(000008)深度研究:轨交智能运维龙头 创新商业模式、专注千亿后市场

中泰證券 ·  Apr 4, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The main investment is to build the third pole of rail transit - the leading enterprise in the field of intelligent operation and maintenance of rail transit, Shenzhou High Speed Rail, and has five specialized groups for vehicles, lines, signals, power supply, and stations. It also has its own rail transit design company and operation management company. It is the only listed company in the rail transit operation, maintenance and maintenance field covering the entire industry chain. The company strives to form a differentiated model from large central enterprises such as China Railway Construction (engineering construction industry) and China's heavy vehicle (vehicle equipment industry) by promoting the investment and construction of the entire line in urban rail transit projects and providing operation and maintenance equipment and operation management for the entire line, thus forming a new pole in the rail transit industry. Post-rail transit market: Rail transit investment is gradually shifting from the front end to the back end. The post-market demand potential is nearly 100 billion yuan. Rail transit is still in a stage of rapid development during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. The country's total investment in railways is 3.8 trillion yuan, and the total investment in urban rail subways is 2 trillion yuan. The 2020 railway mileage target is 150,000 kilometers, and the high-speed rail is 30,000 kilometers. Railway mileage and vehicle ownership continued to grow. We estimate that the future annual demand of China's post-rail transit market will be close to 100 billion dollars. Shenzhou High Speed Rail: Backed by Haidian SDIC, the largest shareholder, to provide strategic support such as capital and resources to the company (1) Use the policy and geographical advantages of state-owned capital to connect with resources related to Beijing and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; (2) share Haidian SDIC's industrial resources to help expand the layout of the modern rail transit industry; (3) Haidian SDIC's strong capital and financial strength can provide strong support for the company's external development and industrial integration. Shenzhou High Speed Rail Product Strategy: With “robots+big data” as the core, it integrates industrial Internet technology companies to comprehensively promote the implementation of projects such as unmanned vehicle maintenance factories, unmanned inspection of bridge and tunnel lines, unattended power supply and substation, and automatic signal system control, etc., to create a new system for intelligent rail transit operation and maintenance. The company has previously launched intelligent maintenance robots. In 2018, it will continue to promote intelligent maintenance equipment such as car-side inspection robots, measuring robots, assembly robots, and handling robots to build an unmanned maintenance factory. The intelligent upgrade of the rail transit operation and maintenance system can save a lot of labor costs for rail transit operations and form the company's unique competitive advantage in operation. Promote integrated business model innovation in line plan design/investment/construction/operation, and lead the post-rail transit market according to company planning. In the whole line planning stage, subordinate design companies provide design planning consulting services for the entire line; in the construction stage, subordinate technical equipment groups provide mechanical and electrical equipment such as vehicle maintenance, signal control, line maintenance, etc.; after the line is opened and operated, the subsidiary operating companies carry out line operation management and commercial property management. This industrial model can not only obtain revenue from operation and maintenance equipment systems during the construction phase, but also obtain long-term revenue from continuous operation, maintenance, commercial development, and advertising in the aftermarket during the 20-30 year period of line operation. Thus, a differentiated business model with large central enterprises such as China Railway Construction and CRRC has been created. The chairman's plan to increase his holdings highlights the company's confidence and builds a margin of safety. Recently, the chairman increased his holdings by 28.66 million shares through personal accounts and Kobe Railway Holdings, for a total increase of 255 million yuan. Investment suggestion: The company's net profit for 2017-2019 is estimated at 81/8.7/980 million yuan, corresponding to PE of 24/22/20 times. The company is scarce in the post-rail transit market. It is covered for the first time, and there is no rating yet. Risk warning: railway and urban rail investment falls short of expectations; PPP policy risks; project progress falls short of expectations

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