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东百集团(600693)年报点评:零售收入低于预期 地产业务贡献利润

光大證券 ·  Apr 4, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The company's 2017 revenue increased 28.10% year on year, and net profit increased 144.85% year on year. On the evening of April 3, the company announced its 2017 annual report. In 2017, the company achieved operating income of 3.856 billion yuan, an increase of 28.10% over the previous year, which was lower than expected. In 2017, net profit was 247 million yuan, which was converted into fully diluted EPS of 0.28 yuan, an increase of 144.85% over the previous year, and realized net profit after deducting $249 million, an increase of 140.30% over the previous year, in line with the company's January 25 forecast. The reason for the sharp increase in the company's performance is that revenue from the commercial real estate business increased by 51.21% year on year, contributing a lot of profit. The consolidated gross margin increased by 1.59 percentage points, and the period expense ratio decreased by 1.39 percentage points. In 2017, the company's commercial retail business achieved revenue of 1,264 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.34%. In 2017, the company opened two stores, Dongbaidongjie Store and Dongfangdongjie Store, and transformed them into “Dongbai Center”. In 2017, the company's commercial real estate business achieved revenue of 1,871 million yuan, an increase of 51.21% over the previous year. Among them, the first phase of housing in the Fu'an East 100 Plaza Project was gradually handed over, achieving revenue of 866 million yuan, an increase of 318.90% over the previous year. The company's consolidated gross margin in 2017 was 26.75%, up 1.59 percentage points from the previous year. The company's fee rate for the period in 2017 was 8.51%, down 1.39 percentage points from the previous year. The department store business has regional advantages, and the real estate business is expected to continue to contribute profits in terms of department store business. The company's main stores, Dongbai Center, are located in the Dongjiekou business district of the Fuzhou commercial center, close to “Sanfang and Seven Alley”, the top ten historical and cultural streets in China. The underground part of the museum is seamlessly connected to Fuzhou Metro Line 1, and has an excellent geographical location. At the same time, the company obtained the right to operate the “Sanfang, Seven Alleys, and Seven Alleys South Street Urban Living Complex Operation Service Project” through an auction. It will be used as Hall C of Dongbai Center. In the future, the three pavilions will be jointly operated to form a large-scale urban complex with an area of more than 180,000 square meters. In terms of real estate business, the Lanzhou International Trade Center project and the Fu'an East 100 Plaza project will continue to contribute profits. Lower the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating. We believe that the company's retail business will enter a stage of weak recovery. In terms of commercial real estate business, due to the large number of revenue confirmations in 2017, it is difficult for future commercial real estate business revenue to increase significantly, and its contribution to profit growth is gradually weakening. Therefore, the forecast for the company's 2018-2019 EPS was lowered to 0.32/0.36 yuan (previously 0.38/ 0.47 yuan), respectively, and predicted an EPS of 0.41 yuan in 2020. The company's stock price was fully adjusted in the previous period. The current price-earnings ratio (2018) is 21X, which is within a reasonable range and maintains a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The recovery of the retail business did not meet expectations, and the contribution of the real estate business fell short of expectations.

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