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美晨生态(300237)年报点评:双主业驱动业绩增高 “园林+旅游”前景广阔

西南證券 ·  Mar 28, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company released its 2017 annual report. In 2017, we achieved operating income of 3.89 billion yuan, an increase of 31.8% year on year, net profit to mother of 610 million yuan, an increase of 36.5% year on year, and EPS of 0.8 yuan. Performance grew steadily, and the “garden+auto parts” dual main business drove the increase in performance: the company's revenue in 2017 increased 31.8% year-on-year, and the “garden+auto parts” dual business contributed to revenue growth. Auto parts business revenue was 1.24 billion yuan, up 39.8% year on year, accounting for 31.8%; garden business revenue was 2.63 billion yuan, up 28.0% year on year, accounting for 67.5%. The company will continue to steadily develop the “garden+auto parts” dual business in the future. As the country continues to increase its policy support for environmental protection and management and the increase in the company's auto parts market share, it is expected that the two main businesses will continue to contribute considerable revenue to the company in the next few years. Profitability increased significantly, and cash flow improved significantly: the company's gross profit margin in 2017 was 34.2%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous year, mainly due to the increase in the share of PPP orders, which increased the gross margin of the garden business; the net profit margin was 15.9%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous year. The cost rate for the period was 14.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the financial expense ratio increased 0.9 percentage points due to the expansion of the company's Sai Shi Garden business scale and the increase in loans; because the growth rate of management expenses was lower than the revenue growth rate, the management expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points; and the sales expense ratio was basically the same as the previous year. Operating cash flow was 180 million yuan, an increase of 200 million yuan over the previous year's -380 million yuan, mainly due to the expansion of business scale, increased repayment efforts, and increased receipt of payment. Outreach mergers and acquisitions improve the layout of the garden industry, and “garden+tourism” has broad prospects: following the acquisition of Saishi Garden, the company successively acquired Faya Garden and Weihong Environment in 2017 to improve the layout of the garden industry. In addition, the company increased capital of Saishi Garden, Hangzhou Garden, and Faya Garden in 2017, and continued to expand the scale of the garden industry. The garden business has gradually become the company's main source of revenue. In the past three years, gardens have accounted for more than half, 67.0%, 69.5%, and 67.5%, respectively. Saishi Garden, a subsidiary of the company, is steadily advancing the “Garden+Tourism” PPP project. It is expected that in the future, it will carry out in-depth cooperation in scenic hotels, characteristic towns, cultural tourism towns, etc., and work together to form additional sources of profit. By the end of 2017, Saishi Garden had orders of 5.60 billion yuan, about 1.4 times the company's revenue in 2017. The abundant number of on-hand orders provided a reliable guarantee for the release of future garden sector performance. Implementing a multi-regional strategic layout, the business in the northwest and southwest regions grew rapidly: in 2017, the company's revenue in North China, East China, South China, Central China, Northwest China, Southwest China, Northeast China and foreign revenue was 480 million yuan, 2.17 billion yuan, 160 million yuan, 280 million yuan, 650 million yuan, 100 million yuan, 0.2 billion yuan and 0.2 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 12.2%, 55.9%, 4.2%, 7.2%, 16.6%, 2.5%, 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Benefiting from sufficient orders and steady progress in the northwest and southwest markets, revenue in the northwest and southwest regions increased dramatically, with growth rates of 139.9% and 148.3% respectively. In the future, while steadily developing its business in the East China market, the company will continue to actively explore the northwest, southwest and other regional markets. Since 2017, the company's subsidiaries Saishi Garden and Faya Garden have signed long-term framework agreements totaling 36 billion yuan with Shandong, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Jiangxi and Guizhou. The signing of major framework agreements will further strengthen the company's ability to accept orders in East China, Northwest China and Southwest China. Profit forecast and rating: EPS is expected to be 1.04 yuan, 1.44 yuan, and 1.95 yuan respectively in 2018-2020, corresponding PE is 14 times, 10 times, and 7 times. The company's garden industry layout is gradually improving, and there are plenty of orders in hand. In the future, the garden business will continue to expand, referring to the garden industry valuation (the average valuation in 2018 was 20 times). At the same time, based on the company's performance, the company was given an 18 times valuation in 2018, corresponding to a target price of 18.72 yuan. For the first time, coverage was given a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Project progress falls short of expectations, business development, or falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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