Key investment performance was in line with expectations, with a significant improvement over the previous year. In '17, the company achieved revenue of 34.14 billion yuan, +32.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 804 million yuan, +94.0% year-on-year. In terms of new car sales, the company's new car sales volume in 2017 was 103,600 units, achieving new car sales revenue of 30.33 billion yuan, +32.7% year-on-year. The gross margin of new car sales rose from 3.2% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2017, of which 73,200 vehicles were sold by luxury brands, +29.8% year-on-year. In terms of after-sales business, the company achieved after-sales revenue of 3.74 billion yuan, +31.8% year-on-year, and the number of after-sales service units +45.8% year-on-year. The after-sales gross margin increased to 48.0% from 45.9% in 2016, and the customer retention rate increased to 82.4% from 79.1% last year. In addition, the company's sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased by 0.3%/0.8%, respectively, and the balance ratio decreased by 5.0%. With the acquisition of 7 stores, the synergy with Guanghui is gradually reflected. In 2017, the company built and opened a new BMW 4S store, and added 7 new outlets through mergers and acquisitions, including brands such as BMW, Porsche, and Maserati. In addition, the company has also authorized 1 new Alfa Romeo branch. Currently, the number of outlets opened by the company has risen to 108, including 45 BMW, 19 Jaguar Land Rovers, and 5 Porsches. We believe that the automobile dealership industry in China has begun to pick up prosperity, and that leading dealers have a large scale advantage in terms of operating capacity and inventory management capabilities. Since the company was acquired by Guanghui Automobile, it has gradually been injected into the acquisition gene, and it is expected that it will continue to improve its network layout through acquisitions in the future. The derivatives business went hand in hand, and the auto finance business developed rapidly. In 2017, the company's financial leasing business revenue was 62 million yuan, and the number of units reached 6284 units, an increase of 13 times over the previous year of 2004 million yuan. Interest-bearing assets reached 1 billion yuan, and auto finance commission income reached 213 million yuan, +130% over the same period last year. Used car commission revenue was +55.6% year over year, with a penetration rate of 27%; auto insurance commission income was +21.5%, and the initial insurance rate\ renewal rate reached 70.0%\ 73.1%, up 2.0%\ 12.4% respectively. Benefit from consumption upgrades and model cycle support. In 2017, the total sales volume of the luxury car market in China was 2.52 million units, +19% over the same period, while the total sales volume of the passenger car market in China increased by only 3%. Looking ahead to 2018: BMW has launched the new BMW 525Li, and will soon launch a new domestic X3 in June, and will gradually launch imported X2\ X4; Porsche (new Cayenne) is also about to enter the new model cycle. The luxury car market, which is dominated by high-displacement models, is less affected by the decline in purchase tax incentives. Combined with consumption upgrades and the new model cycle, the luxury car market is expected to continue to grow at 15% + in 2018. There is still room for Guanghui Baoxin's profit elasticity as the core dealer of BMW and Porsche to continue to improve. Risk warning: The growth rate of the luxury car market falls short of expectations; terminals for major models such as the BMW 5 Series and X3 are sold at discount prices; and the auto finance business is not progressing as expected. Profit forecast and valuation: Maintain the company's basic EPS forecast for 2018/19 at $0.40/0.49, respectively. The current stock price of the company is HK$3.20, corresponding to 8.7/6.4/5.3 times PE in 17/18/19. We believe that the company's network expansion is solid and steady, benefiting from a rise in the cycle of models such as BMW and Porsche in the short term, and from consumption upgrades in the medium to long term. Based on the valuation level of the industry, we believe that the company's reasonable valuation level is 15 times PE in 2018, with a target price of HK$7.0, maintaining a “buy” rating.
广汇宝信(01293.HK)年报点评:业绩符合预期 汽车金融快速增长
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