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美晨生态(300237):园林PPP业务有望加快释放 双主业携手并进

華金證券 ·  Mar 30, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Key investment performance maintained high growth, and the expected growth rate accelerated in the first quarter: the company achieved revenue of 38.89 billion yuan for the full year of 2017, up 31.81% year on year, realized net profit of 609 million yuan, up 36.46% year on year, and cash flow from operating activities improved significantly. The net amount was -178 million yuan, an increase of 52.90% over the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, the company's Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 revenue growth rates were 38.58%, 51.92%, 54.21%, and 8.15%, respectively. The year-on-year revenue growth rate remained high in the first three quarters, and the decline in the fourth quarter may have been affected by the tightening of PPP policies and the slowdown in project implementation. The 2017 profit distribution plan is to distribute a cash dividend of 0.80 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, and to transfer 8 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders. At the same time, the company also released a forecast for the first quarter of 2018. Benefiting from the accelerated implementation of new orders in the garden sector and the continuous improvement of product quality and customer service in the auto parts sector, it is expected to achieve net profit of 120 million to 143 million yuan in the first quarter of 2018, an increase of 55.41% -85.19% over the previous year. Profitability grew steadily, and expenses were well controlled during the period: In 2017, the company's municipal garden business and real estate landscape business developed in coordination, and gross profit margin increased by 0.75%, 0.82%, and 1.51% respectively to 34.17%, 15.91% and 19.45%, respectively. At the same time, due to the company's perfect management control, the cost ratio remained around 14.66% during the period. Due to the continuous expansion of the company's business and capital investment under the PPP model, the balance ratio increased from 54.41% to 58.60%, and the sales expenses ratio and financial expense ratio increased by 0.11%, 0.94% to 4.07% and 3.20%, respectively. Net operating cash flow was -178 million yuan, an increase of 52.90% over the same period last year, mainly due to strong repayment efforts in the automotive sector and a decrease in accounts receivable. Actively promote the PPP business model, and the two main businesses work hand in hand: In 2017, the company's garden business focused on the PPP policy dividend period, the speed of project implementation accelerated, the domestic heavy truck market improved, and the two main businesses went hand in hand, and revenue reached a new high since listing. By business, the garden engineering business achieved revenue of 2,576 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 30.79% over the previous year, mainly due to the rapid increase in the company's PPP orders; the auto parts business achieved revenue of 1,236 billion yuan, an increase of 39.78% over the previous year, mainly due to improved production and sales in the domestic heavy truck market and construction machinery market. Driven by the two main businesses of the garden business and the auto parts business, the company's ability to execute orders for major projects and obtain new orders continues to improve, and revenue has increased dramatically, driving up profits. New orders have increased dramatically, and employees and major shareholders have increased their confidence: the company signed new orders of 9.133 billion yuan (including framework agreements) in 2017, an increase of 125.06% over the previous year, of which PPP orders amounted to 6.333 billion yuan, an increase of 56.06% over the previous year. The company has close cooperation with relevant government departments at all levels on PPP model business. Orders for high-quality PPP projects have increased rapidly, and the company's PPP model business development is gradually on the right track. With the launch of the Ministry of Finance's fourth batch of project banks, the company's orders are expected to increase significantly in 2018. The purchase of the first phase of the company's employee stock ownership plan has been completed. The average transaction price is about 15.60 yuan/share, totaling 22.829 million shares. The company announced on February 27 that the majority shareholders plan to increase their holdings by 1-3 billion yuan within 6 months, demonstrating management's strong confidence in the company's future development. Investment advice: The company's business is in line with the support of the country's construction of a better life and private PPP business. New orders have reached a record high, and the release of performance in 2018 is expected to accelerate. We forecast the company's operating income from 2018 to 2019 to be 5.3 billion yuan, 7.2 billion yuan and 9.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profit of 908 million yuan, 1,249 million yuan and 1,784 billion yuan respectively, and earnings per share of 1.12 yuan, 1.55 yuan and 2.21 yuan respectively, giving a “buy-A” proposal. Risk warning: Framework agreements and PPP projects fall short of expectations; sharp rise in financing costs; risk of accounts receivable, bad inventory, etc.

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