Abstract

People's Bank of China2019年5月17Released on a daily basis2019In the report on the implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the first quarter of 2008, our interpretation is: timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, reasonable and abundant liquidity.

Lending rates are basically stable.The central bank announced that the weighted average lending rate of financial institutions in March 19 was 5.69%, up 5bp from December last year, with general lending rates rising 13bp, bill financing rates falling 20bp, and mortgage rates falling 7bp. The proportion of general loans with floating interest rates increased by 2.6 percentage points compared with December, while the proportion of loans with benchmark interest rates decreased by 2.7 percentage points, and those with floating interest rates increased by 0.1 percentage points. At the end of March, the overstorage rate was 1.3%, the same as in the same period of 18 years.

The required reserve ratio is "three grades and two excellent".After the implementation of the deposit reserve ratio of county agricultural and commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives, "three files" of large (13.5%), medium (11.5%) and small banks (8%) will be established. As well as the "two excellent" deposit reserve ratio system in which the first and second grade banks can enjoy 0.5 or 1.5 percentage points discount when they reach the assessment standard of targeted reduction in inclusive finance, and the "two excellent" deposit reserve ratio system in which a certain proportion of new deposits of county banks can be used for local loans.After enjoying the "two excellent", the actual reserve ratio of financial institutions is lower than the benchmark file.

We will steadily promote the consolidation of interest rates.One of the core issues of the current interest rate marketization reform is to steadily promote the interest rate "two-in-one track".The "two tracks", namely the deposit and loan benchmark interest rate and the market-oriented risk-free interest rate, the coexistence of the two tracks affects the effective transmission of monetary policy. The key point of promoting "two tracks in one track" is to further cultivate the market-oriented loan pricing mechanism. from the international experience, the loan base interest rate (LPR) has played an important role. Since the operation of LPR in China, the market recognition and credibility have been gradually enhanced, which has become an important reference for the pricing of loan interest rates in financial institutions.The direction of interest rate convergence in the future may be further strengthened.LPRMarket-oriented pricing ability, bank loan pricing and other references gradually from the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates toLPRChange.

The economy is close to potential growth.The central bank estimates that China's potential economic growth has declined in the past decade, the current actual economic growth rate is similar to the potential growth rate, the supply and demand of the real economy is basically balanced, and the unemployment rate and inflation remain stable as a whole.The core of increasing potential output is to improve total factor productivity.Technological progress and institutional reform will help to expand the space for potential economic growth. We must persist in taking supply-side structural reform as the main line, deepen market-oriented reform, expand a high level of opening up, speed up the construction of a modern economic system, and keep the economic growth rate close to the potential growth rate.

M2Moderate growth and sound monetary policy.GuideM2Growth rate and nominalGDPThe growth rate basically matches.Is the main indicator of the appropriateness of prudent monetary policy. The column expounds the relationship between structural deleveraging and prudent monetary policy, and adheres to the coordinated and orderly promotion of overall stable leverage and structural deleveraging.Too loose or too tight money may deviate from the original intention of maintaining financial stability and promoting sustained and healthy economic development.A prudent and tight monetary policy helps to find a good balance between debt stock and increment, total leverage and structure; at the same time, structural monetary policy tools, "precise drip irrigation", are properly used. constantly optimize and adjust the financial supply to different sectors and different subjects.

Timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, reasonable and abundant liquidity.The central bank believes that there is sufficient space for monetary policy response, rich policy toolboxes, and the ability to cope with internal and external uncertainties; overall price stability, increased uncertainties, and the need for continuous monitoring. Compared with the fourth quarter of 18, this report adds back the expression "keep a good money supply gate" deleted in the fourth quarter, but also emphasizes the timely and appropriate implementation of counter-cyclical adjustment and timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning in accordance with economic growth and changes in the price situation. In the future, it is necessary to deepen the structural reform on the financial supply side, because the situation is more targeted to implement macro-control, prudent monetary policy should be loosened and appropriately tightened, monetary policy transmission should be dredged, monetary policy tools and mechanisms should be innovated, and financing costs of the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, should be further reduced.On the whole, the central bank believes that the current internal and external economy and prices are still uncertain, but the corresponding measures should focus on high-quality development and enhance the potential of economic growth, rather than going back to the old road of debt stimulus; while avoiding "flooding", monetary policy in the future will also pay attention to timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, maintain relatively loose, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and reasonable and stable market interest rates.

The people's Bank of China issued the report on the implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the first quarter of 2019 on May 17, 2019. Our interpretation is: timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, reasonable and abundant liquidity.

1. Loan interest rates are basically stable.

Announced by the central bank19年3Monthly lending rate for financial institutions5.69%, compared with the previous year12Lunar rise5bp。In order to more fully reflect the cost of obtaining loan financing from banks in the real economy, the central bank renamed the weighted average interest rate on loans to non-financial enterprises and other sectors toWeighted average interest rate on loansOn the basis of the original loans from non-financial enterprises and other sectors (including general loans and bill financing), personal housing loans (excluding provident fund loans) have been increased. Among them, the general loan interest rate upward 13bp, bill financing interest rate decreased 20bp, housing loan interest rate downward 7bp. On the whole, lending rates are basically stable. The central bank mentioned that from the historical data, the seasonal characteristics of lending rates in the first quarter were more obvious, and after seasonally adjusted, the weighted average interest rates on loans decreased slightly compared with December last year. Comprehensive social financing costs, including bank loans, bonds, off-balance sheet financing, and so on, continued to decline.

Judging from the implementation of the loan interest rate, it was generally stable in the first quarter.Among them, the proportion of loans with floating interest rates increased slightly, 2.6 percentage points higher than that of December 18; the proportion of loans with benchmark interest rates decreased by 2.7 percentage points; and the proportion of loans with floating interest rates was basically stable, up 0.1 percentage points. The overstock rate seasonally fell to 1.3% at the end of March, unchanged from the same period in 18 years.

2. The required reserve ratio is "three grades and two excellent"

The central bank said that after the implementation of the deposit reserve ratio of county agricultural and commercial banks announced in May with rural credit cooperatives, it will establish "three levels" of large (13.5%), medium (11.5%) and small banks (8%).Large bankIncluding Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank Of China, Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of Communications and 6 Postal savings BanksMedium-sized bankIt mainly includes joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks.Small bankIncluding rural credit cooperatives, rural cooperative banks, rural banks and rural commercial banks serving the county.

On the basis of the "third gear", two concessions are also implemented: (1) the first and second grade banks can enjoy a discount of 0.5 or 1.5 percentage points when they reach the assessment standard of targeted reduction in inclusive finance; and (2) a certain proportion of new deposits in county banks can enjoy a discount of 1 percentage point for local loans.After enjoying the "two excellent", the actual reserve ratio of financial institutions is lower than the benchmark file.

This time, the deposit reserve ratio of agricultural and commercial banks serving the county will be merged downwards, which makes China's deposit reserve system clearer, and because this kind of financial institutions serving the county have the nature of universal benefit, they will be given a lower deposit reserve ratio.It can enhance its financial strength, promote the reduction of financing costs, better support private and small and micro enterprises, and help to optimize the structure.

3. Steadily promote the consolidation of interest rates

One of the core issues of the current interest rate marketization reform is to steadily promote the interest rate "two-in-one track", which can dredge the transmission of money market interest rate to loan interest rate.The "two tracks" are the deposit and loan benchmark interest rate and the market-oriented risk-free interest rate. At present, the two tracks coexist in China's financial system, which affects the effective transmission of monetary policy. The central bank believes that at present, the liquidity of the banking system is reasonable and abundant, the money market interest rate is stable, and the real interest rate of loans is greatly affected by the risk premium.The "integration of two tracks into one track" can promote financial institutions to price risk more effectively, and then reduce the risk premium and promote the reduction of financing costs of small and micro enterprises.

To promote "two tracks into one track", the focus is to further cultivate the market-oriented loan pricing mechanism, the future loan base interest rate (LPR) or play a greater role.From international experience, LPR plays an important role and is a reference for the pricing of loan interest rates in financial institutions. The central bank said that since China's LPR has been in operation for 13 years, its market recognition and credibility have gradually increased, and it has become an important reference for the pricing of loan interest rates by financial institutions. In practice, we can see that the fluctuation of LPR in recent years is actually very small, with almost no change since November 15, while the central bank uses LPR, Shibor and MLF interest rates as a reference for market-oriented pricing in its freight policy report, which meansThe direction of interest rate convergence in the future may be further strengthened.LPRMarket-oriented pricing ability to gradually realize the calculation of internal loan interest rates from deposit and loan benchmark interest rates toLPRThe transformation.

4. The economy is close to potential growth.

The central bank also focused on long-term growth.In the column "Analysis of potential Economic growth", the central bank estimates that China's potential economic growth has declined in the past decade, the current actual economic growth rate is similar to the potential economic growth rate, and the supply and demand of the real economy is basically balanced. Unemployment and inflation remain stable on the whole. The central bank mentioned in its column that the increase of labor force and capital accumulation make a great contribution to economic growth in the early stage of economic development, but there are long-term constraints.The core of increasing potential output is to improve total factor productivity (TFP），In the future, through technological progress and institutional reform, it will help to expand the space for potential economic growth. While continuing to increase investment in education and basic technological research and development, we should pay more attention to the reform of the system and mechanism, take supply-side structural reform as the main line, deepen market-oriented reform, expand a high level of opening up, and speed up the construction of a modern economic system, so that the economic growth rate is close to the potential growth rate.

5. M2Moderate growth and prudent monetary policy

A lot of space has been spent on the orientation of monetary policy in this report.

First,In the column "supporting high-quality development with moderate monetary growth", the central bank mentioned that promoting high-quality economic development requiresThe monetary policy should be loosened and tightened moderately, and the general floodgate of money supply should be well guided.M2 growth basically matches nominal GDP growth.This is also the main indicator of the appropriateness of prudent monetary policy. The central bank reviewed that the monetary growth rate maintained single-digit growth in 17 and 18 years, which roughly matched the economic growth rate in the same period, and the macro leverage ratio was generally stable, believing that the current economic operation was within a reasonable range and was achieved without "flooding". In the next stage, we should continue to implement a sound monetary policy and timely pre-adjust and fine-tune it in accordance with economic growth and changes in the price situation, so as to create an appropriate monetary and financial environment for supply-side structural reform and high-quality development.After April, when economic growth slowed down and external risks were superimposed, the central bank continued the formulation of "general floodgate" in order to support "high-quality development" and avoid "flooding".

Second,In the column "structural deleveraging and prudent monetary policy", the central bank further elaboratedThe relationship between structural deleveraging and prudent Monetary Policy. Keeping the prudent monetary policy loose and tight will help to strike a good balance between the disposal of existing debt and the control of new debt, and adhere to the coordinated and orderly progress of overall stable leverage and structural deleveraging. Too loose or too tight money may deviate from the original intention of maintaining financial stability and promoting sustained and healthy economic development. At the same time, we should make appropriate use of structural monetary policy tools, "precision drip irrigation", and constantly optimize and adjust the financial supply to different departments and different subjects.In the process of structural deleveraging, we will maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and balance the relationship between steady growth and risk prevention.

6. Timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, reasonable and abundant liquidity

The economy got off to a steady start in the first quarter, the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy gradually became effective, the financial support for the real economy was stable, the credit contraction significantly eased, and the policy effects of large-scale tax cuts and fee cuts gradually appeared. But at the same time, from an external point of view, the international economic environment is generally tight; from an internal point of view, economic growth is highly dependent on real estate and infrastructure investment, the driving force of endogenous economic growth needs to be further strengthened, prices are generally stable, and uncertainties are increasing. need continuous monitoring.The central bank said that at present, there is plenty of room for monetary policy response, rich policy toolbox, and the ability to cope with internal and external uncertainty.

The next stageIt is necessary to deepen the structural reform on the financial supply side, and implement macro-control more pertinently because of the situation.Compared with the fourth quarter report of last year, there are two main changes this time:

First, it has added back the expression "keep a good general floodgate of the money supply" deleted in the fourth quarter.Consistent with the statement of the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the people's Bank of China in the first quarter, it reflects the idea that monetary policy should be vigilant against causing liquidity illusion and avoiding "flooding" after the high increase in credit in the first quarter. It also echoes the contents of the previous two columns about moderate monetary growth supporting high-quality development (M2 growth should be matched with nominal GDP growth), relying on total factor productivity to increase potential output (lower marginal return on capital, relying on technological input, and paying attention to institutional reform).

The second is to emphasize the timely and appropriate implementation of counter-cyclical adjustment and timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning in accordance with economic growth and changes in the price situation.Since April, economic growth has declined and external uncertainty has also increased, so it is still necessary for monetary policy to adjust counter-cyclically. at the same time, we should also pay attention to "due to the situation", "timely and moderate", and "pre-adjustment and fine-tuning". We will enhance the foresight, pertinence and effectiveness of regulation and control, accurately grasp the degree of regulation and control, strengthen the guidance of expectations, and stabilize market expectations. In terms of specific measures, we will continue to dredge the transmission of monetary policy, innovate monetary policy tools and mechanisms, and further reduce the financing costs of the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises.

On the whole, the central bank believes that the current internal and external economy and prices are still uncertain, but the response measures should be to focus on high-quality development and enhance the potential of economic growth, rather than going back to the old road of debt stimulus; while avoiding "flooding", monetary policy in the future will also pay attention to timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, maintain relatively loose, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and reasonable and stable market interest rates.