Kangxin New Materials (600076) Annual report comment: the volume and price of container floor rises together and the global market share continues to rise.

招商證券 · Apr 3, 2018 00:00 · Researches

　　事件：

　　公司发布年报。2017 年实现营业收入 18.18 亿元，同比增长 39.05%，归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 4.66 亿元，同比增长 21.47%。拟每 10 股派发现金红利1.1 元。

　　评论：

　　1、集装箱底板量价齐升，并顺利完成业绩承诺：伴随主要经济体持续复苏，2017年全球集装箱贸易 1.91 亿 TEU，同比增长 5.02%，来自集运公司和租箱公司的需求持续增加。得益于订单量增加与合并新华昌木业，公司 2017 年集装箱底板的收入达 13.26 亿元，同比增长 111%；销量达 32.4 万立方米，同比增长 93.49%；销售均价近 4100 元/立方米，同比增长 9.1%；毛利率达 33.38%，提升 4.34 个百分点。资产重组时，康欣承诺扣非后归母净利润，2017 年目标 4.42 亿元，基本完成；2015-2017 三年累计 10.44 亿元，超额完成近 4500 万元。分红对当年净利润的比例达到 24.4%，未来会持续性回报投资者。

　　2、合并推高费用，产品生产调整：销售费用、管理费用同比分别增加约 62%、87%，有合并嘉善新华昌木业、森林资源资产管护支出增加等原因。由于主要产能用来生产集装箱底板，环保板的收入同比下滑近 34%，销量同比下滑 29%，毛利率为 46.91%，同比减少 2.06 个百分点。对比欧美 50%以上的占比，国内的OSB 板材潜力巨大。期末存货为 17.5 亿元，同比增加 38.97%，主要是森林资源资产购置增加。

　　3、速生材技术+林板一体化，具备资源与成本优势：十三五规划中，首次提出全面停止天然林商业性采伐，将分三步实施。原材料将日益短缺，林木资源供需缺口较大。集装箱底板市场规模在百亿元左右，底板占集装箱总成本比重接近 15%。

　　公司掌握以次小薪材代替热带阔叶林的速生杨技术，以及丰富的林木资源（原料林 80 万余亩），降低原料成本；契合集装箱制造的轻量化+低成本的行业趋势。

　　合并的嘉善新华昌，2017 年实现收入 4.56 亿元，净利润 2311 万元，高于承诺的 2000 万元。公司作为集装箱底板龙头，收购新华昌木业后的全球市占率已超过 25%，优势进一步凸显。

　　投资建议：公司作为集装箱底板龙头，扩产与收购新华昌木业后的全球市占率已超过 25%，掌握速生材技术+林板一体化，契合集装箱轻量化+低成本化的发展趋势，受益集装箱行业回暖；COSB 环保板受益消费升级。不考虑重组因素，预计 2018-2020 年 EPS 为 0.54 元、0.61 元、0.74 元。维持“强烈推荐-A”评级。

　　风险提示：集装箱行业发展与 OSB 板材应用推广具有不确定性、林业灾害等。

Events:

The company publishes its annual report. In 2017, the operating income was 1.818 billion yuan, an increase of 39.05% over the same period last year. The net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 466 million yuan, an increase of 21.47% over the same period last year. It is proposed to pay a cash dividend of 1.1 yuan for every 10 shares.

Comments:

1. The volume and price of container floor have risen together, and the performance pledge has been successfully fulfilled: with the sustained recovery of major economies, global container trade in 2017 was 191 million TEU, an increase of 5.02% over the same period last year, and demand from container transportation companies and container leasing companies continued to increase. Thanks to the increase in orders and the merger of New Huachang Wood, the company's revenue from container floor in 2017 reached 1.326 billion yuan, an increase of 111 percent over the same period last year; sales reached 324000 cubic meters, an increase of 93.49 percent over the same period last year; the average sales price was nearly 4100 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 9.1 percent over the same period last year; gross profit margin reached 33.38 percent, an increase of 4.34 percentage points. During the asset restructuring, Kangxin promised to deduct the non-return net profit, with a target of 442 million yuan in 2015, which was basically completed; in the three years from 2015 to 2017, it accumulated 1.044 billion yuan, exceeding the completion of nearly 45 million yuan. Dividends account for 24.4% of the net profit of the year and will continue to return to investors in the future.

2. the merger pushed up the cost, and the product production adjustment: the sales expenses and management expenses increased by about 62% and 87% respectively compared with the same period last year, due to the increased expenditure on the management and protection of forest resources assets and the merger of JIASHAN Xinhua Chang wood industry. As the main production capacity is used to produce container floor, the revenue of environmental protection board is down nearly 34% from the same period last year, the sales volume is down 29% from the same period last year, and the gross profit margin is 46.91%, down 2.06% from the same period last year. Compared with more than 50% of Europe and the United States, the domestic OSB sheet has great potential. The ending inventory was 1.75 billion yuan, an increase of 38.97% over the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in the purchase of forest resources assets.

3. Fast-growing wood technology + forest board integration, with resources and cost advantages: in the 13th five-year Plan, it is proposed for the first time to stop commercial cutting of natural forests, which will be implemented in three steps. There will be an increasing shortage of raw materials and a large gap between supply and demand of forest resources. The size of the container floor market is about 10 billion yuan, and the floor accounts for nearly 15% of the total cost of the container.

The company has mastered the fast-growing poplar technology of replacing tropical broad-leaved forest with sub-small fuelwood, as well as rich forest resources (more than 800000 mu of raw material forest) to reduce raw material costs, which is in line with the lightweight + low-cost industry trend of container manufacturing.

The merged JIASHAN Xinhua Chang achieved an income of 456 million yuan and a net profit of 23.11 million yuan in 2017, higher than the promised 20 million yuan. As the leader of the container floor, the company has a global market share of more than 25% after the acquisition of New Huachang Wood, and its advantage is further highlighted.

Investment suggestion: as the leader of container floor, the company has a global market share of more than 25% after the expansion and acquisition of New Huachang Wood Industry, mastering fast-growing wood technology + forest board integration, in line with the development trend of container lightweight + low cost, benefiting from the warming of the container industry; COSB environmental protection boards benefit from consumption upgrading. Without considering the reorganization factors, it is estimated that the EPS from 2018 to 2020 is 0.54,0.61,0.74 yuan. Maintain the "highly recommended-A" rating.

Risk hint: the development of container industry and the application and promotion of OSB plate are uncertain, forestry disasters and so on.

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康欣新材(600076)年报点评：集装箱底板量价齐升 全球市占率继续提升

Kangxin New Materials (600076) Annual report comment: the volume and price of container floor rises together and the global market share continues to rise.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

康欣新材(600076)年报点评：集装箱底板量价齐升全球市占率继续提升