Since the Spring Festival in 2019, the land market in second-tier cities has been heating up rapidly and has recently been transferred to third-and fourth-tier cities. Judging from the performance of 299 third-and fourth-tier cities monitored by CRICLand transaction volume and prices rose in AprilThe transaction construction area increased by 30% month-on-month, and the average price of land transaction increased by 19% month-on-month. In particular, the third-and fourth-tier cities of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are prominent, in which the land heat of Fuyang, Changzhou, Lishui, Jinhua and other cities increases obviously, and high premium plots occur frequently, such as the floor price of a commercial and residential plot in Zhong Lou District of Changzhou is breaking through the all-time high.

In view of the fact that the central government has recently re-emphasized the spirit of "housing speculation", overheated cities in Suzhou, Hefei and Xi'an have introduced tightening policies one after another.In the face of the emergence of various early warning signals of regulation and control, we have to make the market wonder: how long can this round of soil slaps warm up?

1

The phenomenon of high heat in the second-line soil shot was transferred to the third and fourth line, and Changzhou, Wuxi and other cities in the Yangtze River Delta showed outstanding performance.

After the premium rate in second-tier cities broke through 25% in March, the highest since the second half of 2018.The premium rate of third-and fourth-tier cities also ended its low level for half a year, and it picked up obviously in April, with the premium rate rising to 21.3%.It is up nearly 10 percentage points from the beginning of the year.

The main reason is that there were many high-quality plots in Wenzhou, Changzhou, Changshu, Jinhua, Wuxi, Foshan, Taizhou, Zhenjiang and other hot cities in April.. Take Wenzhou as an example, a total of 16 residential sites were sold in April, with a premium of more than 10.4 billion, of which 12 cases had a premium rate of more than 25%. The same is true in Changzhou. The premium rate of 5 pieces of residential land sold in April was all above 50%. Among them, a commercial and residential plot located in the clock tower area was finally won by the new city after 77 rounds of bidding, with a premium rate as high as 86%.The floor price reached 15665 yuan per square meter, setting a new high for residential land in Changzhou.To become the new "land king"In addition, on April 4, lot XDG-2019-3 on the north side of the new fourth courtyard in Binhu District, Wuxi, was awarded by lottery.The floor price of Sunchuang is limited to 18000 yuan per square meter, and the total price is 2.422 billion yuan. The price of this floor is only 50 yuan / square meter lower than the highest price in Wuxi.Such cases go on and on, gradually pushing up the popularity of the land market in third-and fourth-tier cities.

However, the current third-and fourth-tier land market is not fully picking up, and high premium plots are still concentrated in a small number of cities.Of the 299 cities in the sample, only 72 cities have premium rates above the average of 20%.In terms of regional distribution, 22 cities are distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces, which shows the heat of the land market in the Yangtze River Delta.. In addition, Sichuan, Guangdong, Hubei also have more urban land premium rate is higher, also gathered the attention of a large number of housing enterprises.

Comparing the average premium rate of third-and fourth-tier cities in various provinces, Sichuan, Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces have an average premium rate of more than 30% to form the first echelon, which is far behind other provinces.Among them, the differentiation of cold and heat in Sichuan is more obvious.For example, Yibin and Guangyuan have good transport facilities such as high-speed rail and airports, and the land market is obviously hotter, with land auction premium rates reaching 144% and 55% respectively, while the land markets in Luzhou and Meishan are relatively quiet, with an average premium rate of less than 3%.Guangdong, which has a good seat in the Great Bay area, is also doing well.The average premium rates of Dongguan, Jiangmen and Zhuhai are all more than 40%, among which Hongyang's residential land in Jiangmen with a floor price of 5846 yuan / yuan has set a record for the land price of the local etiquette and music plate.Zhejiang, which is located in the Yangtze River Delta, performs "equally well".In April, the premium rate of prefecture-level cities was all higher than 15%. The premium rate of several pieces of land in Taizhou, Shaoxing and Lishui all exceeded 100%, and the reserve price of land auction in some cities rose rapidly. Take Huzhou, where the premium rate is 16%, as an example, the floor price of land transaction has increased by about 50% compared with the end of 2018.

In addition, the performance of Fuyang in Anhui Province is also worthy of attention.The city's Guanxuan high-speed railway opened this year, and in April, a total of 15 plots had a premium rate of more than 30%, ranking first among third-and fourth-tier cities.

2

The reason for warming up: the development of urban agglomeration promotes the growth of demand, from which urban land markets such as Fuyang and Huzhou can benefit.

On the one hand, the warming of the third and fourth-tier cities is caused by the high heat conduction effect of the second-tier cities, but the most fundamental supporting point is the many positive impetus brought by the integrated development of urban agglomeration.Taking the Yangtze River Delta region where the soil temperature of the third and fourth lines is the most significant, for example, affected by the acceleration of integration, especially driven by industrial transfer, the population of some cities has returned, and the demand for housing has further increased. The outstanding performance is Huzhou, Xuancheng, Jiaxing, Nantong and other cities with superior location and easy to undertake industrial transfer. Taking Huzhou as an example, it is located within the one-hour co-urbanized metropolitan area of the three major cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Nanjing, and has multiple advantages of convenient transportation, ecological livability and low cost of living. at the same time, it is also an important node city connecting the north and south wings of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the central and western regions, which determines that Huzhou can make a difference in industrial coordination. Huzhou added as many as 121000 new jobs in 2018. There is no doubt that the growth of the working population will also lead to an increase in housing demand, which will also further push up the heat of the land market.

The same is true of XuanchengThe pace of transformation and upgrading of Xuancheng has been accelerated in recent years. The investment project of Xuancheng Xintang Down Industrial Park was officially signed in 2013, and in 2018 it was also included in the G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor key Industrial Alliance Park. at the first joint meeting of G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor, the cooperation project of Songjiang Xuancheng Industrial Park was signed, which focuses on undertaking relevant enterprises in Songjiang District of Shanghai. Good opportunities for industrial development have made Xuancheng's population growth take a turn for the better. In 2018, the resident population reached 2.648 million, an increase of 34000 over 2017. Apart from the natural growth of 11000, there was also a net migration of 23000.

The examples of Huzhou and Xuancheng are not individual cases. The population of Fuyang, Jiaxing, Chuzhou and other cities have returned.. Among them, the most typical city is Fuyang, which has lagged behind in economic development for a long time and has been a typical population outflow city for a long time, but there has been a significant return of population in recent years, with a mechanical inflow of 25000 people in 2018. In addition, Fuyang has a huge population base and great potential for housing demand, so the heat of this wave of second-tier cities is quickly transferred to Fuyang, and the city is heating up significantly.

3

The popularity of the third and fourth lines will cool down somewhat, but the land acquisition opportunities in some cities are still worth paying attention to.

In view of the recent phenomenon of high heat and high premium plots in prefectures and cities.Second-tier cities have taken the lead in introducing regulatory measures.For example, cities with large market fluctuations, such as Hefei, Changsha, Xi'an and Suzhou, have issued tightening policies such as lowering the maximum price of land, suspending deed tax concessions for second homes, starting provident fund risk control, and restricting sales, especially in Suzhou, which restricts the sale of new houses in some key areas of the park and high-tech zones for three years and all second-hand houses in the park for five years. From this point of view, "housing speculation" is still the core of regulation and control, "give priority to stability, one city, one policy" policy tone has not changed. If land prices in third-and fourth-tier cities of hot spots continue to rise rapidly, it is believed that local authorities will also quickly follow suit, especiallyCities such as Changzhou and Wuxi, where land prices are overheated and land prices have reached record highs, have a greater possibility of regulation and control, so we should be cautious in the soil shooting market.

Combined with the land transactions in early May,The heat of third-and fourth-tier cities has been alleviated to a certain extent, and the premium rate has dropped to 15%, down 6.3 percentage points from April.From this point of view, the early warning of the Ministry of Housing and Construction has been effective, housing enterprises have gradually lowered their expectations of the market, and land acquisition has gradually returned to rationality, and then the land prices of the third and fourth-tier cities willThe "moderate rise" expected by the Ministry of Natural Resources has returned.

However, from the perspective of the supply scale structure of the land market, the third and fourth lines are still the main force of land transactions, accounting for at least more than 70% of the national land market. So for real estate enterprises,On the one hand, we should not give up eating for fear of choking.We should not withdraw from the third and fourth lines completely because of the rapid release of demand in recent years, the decline in the target of old reform and the risk of regulation and control.On the other hand, there should be some emphasis.Under the premise of reasonable assessment of policy risk, we can focus on the third-and fourth-tier cities of the concept of integration of beneficiary urban agglomeration. With the further promotion of urban agglomeration planning in the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, and the accelerated transfer of industries in central cities, some third-and fourth-tier cities may usher in new opportunities for demand growth.Especially in the cities with the rapid increase of jobs in Huzhou, Xuancheng and Fuyang, under the premise that the ratio of land price to house price is less than 0.5, land investment opportunities are more worthy of attention.