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美晨生态(300237)年报点评:业绩增长符合预期 双轮驱动未来发展

廣發證券 ·  Mar 29, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The 2017 performance increased by 37%, and the net interest rate increased year by year. The company achieved net profit of 609 million yuan in 2017, an increase of 36.6% over the previous year. The previous performance forecast increased by 30%-45%, in line with market expectations; the company plans to distribute 0.80 yuan for every 10 additional shares. The company's net profit margin for 2017 was 15.91%, up 0.82% from 2016, mainly due to: 1) the gross margin of the garden business increased by 2.1% compared to last year, driving up the comprehensive gross margin level to 34.17%; 2) fixed asset disposal losses and external donations decreased by 97% and 48%, respectively, compared to last year. The company's expense ratio for the period was 14.7%, up 0.4% from last year. Net operating cash flow in '17 - 178 million yuan, an increase of 52.9% over the previous year, mainly due to the company's increased repayment efforts. The company expects net profit of 120-143 million yuan in Q1 in 2018, an increase of 55%-85% over the previous year. The garden business is an important growth pole for the company. The entire industry chain was extended to develop the market. The company deeply cultivated the garden business after acquiring Saishi Garden in '14, and is committed to becoming a comprehensive developer of the entire industry chain of “seedlings - design - construction - operation”. In '17, gardens achieved revenue of 2.63 billion yuan, accounting for 67.5%; achieved gross profit of 855 million yuan, accounting for 64.4%, and the share of garden revenue and profit showed an upward trend. As of the end of '17, Saishi Garden had on-hand orders of 6.93 billion yuan (including orders that had been won and not signed), of which 6.85 billion yuan was an engineering construction order and 80 million yuan was a design order. Based on revenue for '17, the revenue ratio of on-hand orders was 1.9 billion yuan, and future revenue is highly guaranteed. Furthermore, since '17, the company has signed 11 strategic cooperation agreements, involving an amount of 32 billion yuan, which provides a cooperative foundation for future order growth and is expected to enhance business acceptance capabilities. The traditional auto parts business is growing steadily, and leading technology targets the high-end market. In 17 years, the company's auto parts business achieved revenue of 1.24 billion yuan, accounting for 31.8%; gross profit of 470 million yuan, accounting for 29.8%. Benefiting from a sharp increase in production and sales in the heavy truck and construction machinery market in '17, the company's auto parts revenue increased by 40%. In the medium to long term, the development space for the auto parts industry, which is compatible with the development of the automobile industry, is relatively stable. The company has technical advantages in rubber materials and system integration technology. The company is expected to concentrate on developing high-end mainstream customer markets by integrating non-tire environmentally friendly rubber products industry resources. It is expected that the company will continue to promote the non-tire environmentally friendly rubber products business, expand the market to passenger cars and construction machinery, and promote steady business growth. Multi-channel financing supports business development. Employee shareholding stimulates endogenous motivation. In '17, the company received a bank credit line of 2.14 billion yuan and issued 400 million yuan of corporate bonds in August of the same year. Currently, it plans to issue 700 million yuan of convertible bonds. The company's multi-channel financing supports business expansion. The company implements a shareholding plan for core employees. At the same time, controlling shareholders encourage employees to increase their holdings of the company's shares and provide underwriting commitments. The employee shareholding plan reflects confidence in the company's future development and binds employees to the company's interests, which is expected to stimulate endogenous motivation. Profit forecasting and investment ratings The basic assumptions for profit forecasting are as follows: (1) operating income: 6.93 billion yuan of on-hand orders in '17, with an on-hand order revenue ratio of 1.9, the company accelerated PPP market development and project implementation, and the revenue growth rate is expected to remain high; (2) the company's comprehensive gross margin in 17 years was 34.17%, the company actively explores high-margin businesses such as garden design, and the auto parts business is aimed at high-end mainstream markets, and the company's gross margin is expected to increase; (3) The company's gross margin is expected to increase; (3) The company's expense ratio for 17 years is 14.7%, and it is expected that the industrial chain will benefit from integration in the future As a result of the synergy, the management expense ratio and sales expense ratio may be reduced. In '17, the company issued 400 million yuan of corporate bonds at 5.78% coupon interest, and financial expenses may increase. The company's traditional auto parts business is developing steadily, transforming and deepening the gardening business, building an integrated “plant-design-construction-operation” industrial chain, strengthening business collaboration to improve business acceptance capacity, and at the same time speeding up the layout in ecological and environmental protection, global tourism and characteristic towns. The company's multi-channel financing supports business development, and employee shareholding is expected to stimulate endogenous motivation. We expect the company's net profit to be 8.8/12.1/1.63 billion yuan in 18-20, and the corresponding EPS will be 1.09/1.50/2.02 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 18 times PE. The valuation is at a lower level than that of comparable companies, and the first coverage gives a “buy” rating. Risk warning PPP project progress falls short of expectations; future order acquisition falls short of expectations; order execution is slowing down; project repayment risk; downstream automobile market prosperity falls short of expectations; capital raising falls short of expectations.

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