Report summary: The company has grasped the three major explosive trends of photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and wireless charging, and has successively laid out King Kong wires, wireless coils, extreme power batteries, and wiring harnesses for new energy vehicles, focusing on “small but beautiful” products, and the growth logic is smooth. 1) Photovoltaics: China's photovoltaic price is approaching. As the cost killer of silicon wafers, King Kong wire is of great significance. The market space is huge, and the barriers are gradually getting higher. 2) New energy vehicles: New energy vehicles have doubled in two years, and the market for battery poles and automotive wiring harnesses is very flexible. 3) Wireless charging: The trend is established. After the large-scale application of Apple phones, it will drive a huge market, and wireless charging coils will usher in a period of high growth. The global market share of the company's photovoltaic diamond wire will reach 17% this year, and independent wire drawing matches the trend of thinning. We expect the company to sell about 7.5 million km of steel cable in 2018, of which 6.75 million km will be in the photovoltaic category, accounting for 17% of the world's 40 million km, and the global market size will be about 6.6 billion yuan. Sales volume is expected to exceed 10 million km in 2019 through transformation, efficiency improvement and reasonable expansion, and the market share will continue to rise to more than 25%. Moreover, as demand for silicon wafers to reduce costs increases, the trend of thinning will accelerate. The company has its own wire drawing technology and has a clear advantage in the competition. The company's photovoltaic diamond wire customers include giants such as Jinglong, Jingke, GCL, and Longji. Sapphire Diamond wire customers include giants such as Bourne and Lansi. The wireless charging coil and pole ear began to be supplied, and the cable was then relayed. After all Apple watches and mobile phones use wireless charging, the corresponding wireless coil market size is about 1.1 billion yuan. Assuming that the penetration rate of domestic power soft pack batteries is 30% in 2018 and the penetration rate of the domestic 48V system is 10%, the corresponding market size is 1 billion yuan. Assuming that the value of bicycle wiring harnesses is 4,000 yuan, the domestic NEV wiring harness market size is 4.6 billion yuan. Currently, the company's extreme customers include soft package leaders such as Jiewei Power and Weihong Power. Samples of new energy vehicle wiring harnesses have been sent to car company customers, and wireless charging coils have entered Apple's supply chain. These three major businesses are expected to gradually explode starting in the second half of '18. Company profit forecasts and investment ratings. We expect the company's 2018-2020 operating revenue to be 17.2, 2.25, and 3.1 billion yuan, net profit of 4.7, 600 million yuan, and 760 million yuan, growth rates of 172%, 28%, and 27%. EPS is 4.62, 5.9, and 7.49 yuan respectively, corresponding PE is 21x, 17x, and 13x, respectively, and has been upgraded to a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: PV installations have declined, diamond wire prices have fallen more than expected, and production of new products has fallen short of expectations.
东尼电子(603595)深度报告:金刚线王者 尽享光伏产业升级红利
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