This report is read as follows:
We expect that the company's rail transit vehicle development will take a step-by-step approach, starting with contract manufacturing. The signing of the agreement with Beijing rail transit equipment is of landmark significance and relieves the market of doubts about its vehicle sales. Maintain the target price of 17.02 yuan.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating, with a target price of 17.02 yuan. As a new business for the strategic upgrading of the company, the market has always had doubts about its mass production and signing, but we expect the company's strategic expansion to take a step-by-step approach, starting with contract manufacturing first. wait for the market to approve its technical products before considering its own brand. The signing of cooperation with Beijing Rail Jiaotong equipment Group is a milestone in vehicle manufacturing. The follow-up vehicle business and the release of deep processing capacity will jointly support the continued upward profitability. The net forecast of 7.47 percussion was maintained, and the corresponding EPS was 0.62 and 0.96 yuan in 1919.
Vehicle technology is recognized, strategic cooperation to seek a new chapter. The company has made great efforts from aluminum profile processors to enter the new business of rail transit vehicle manufacturing, which is a reasonable strategic layout under the background of manufacturing upgrading and high-speed rail going out to sea. According to the announcement on March 9, Shenyang Liyuan, a wholly owned subsidiary, signed a technical agreement on aluminum profiles for emus with Beijing Rail Transit Technical equipment Group, which became a milestone for the company in the field of complete vehicles. The agreement includes not only parts but also whole vehicles. We believe that the agreement represents the high recognition of the production capacity of Liyuan EMU by Beijing Railway, which means that it does not rule out the possibility that Beijing Railway will sign a contract with the company in the field of intercity bullet trains and subways.
The excellence of "being late" is only for taking the first step satisfactorily. At present, the company's rail transit vehicle manufacturing system has met the requirements for the production of sample cars, although the whole vehicle has been delayed due to funding, design, and other reasons. however, during this period, the company has supplied the frame parts of Indonesian sightseeing cars, and one of the four major high-speed rail giants in the world has also approached it. Beijing Railway, which accounts for 50% of Beijing, has signed parts and vehicle technical agreements with it, and other matters have already demonstrated the company's outstanding manufacturing capacity of rail vehicles. In the future, the company may start from the rail transit OEM, take a successful first step, and through Japan Mitsui to further open up new customers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
Catalyst: the purchase demand brought by the acceleration of subway construction in Northeast China; orders for car body frame parts.
Core risk: the progress of rail transit vehicle acceptance is slower than expected.
