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松芝股份(002454)深度研究:汽车热管理专家 乘新能源机遇创辉煌

國泰君安 ·  Mar 20, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company is an excellent bus and passenger car air conditioning system integrator. At the same time, it has made a big splash in the comprehensive thermal management of new energy vehicles. The market share of the NEV air conditioning market and passenger car air conditioning market is 40% and 10% respectively, and the thermal management system is about to be released. Investment points: Maintain target prices and increase ratings. The company's new business NEV battery integrated thermal management system has huge market space, and the company's competitiveness is very strong, but there is still some uncertainty about when it will receive a large number of orders. Based on prudent principles, only the positive growth of the company's traditional business is considered. The company's 2017-2019 profit forecast EPS is 0.89 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.35 (-0.46) yuan, giving a 20-fold valuation in 2018, maintaining a target price of 21.2 yuan, and an increase in holdings ratings. Automotive thermal management experts. The status of buses is stable, and passenger cars are advancing by leaps and bounds. In the bus sector, its leading position continues to be stable. The company's market share in the new energy bus air conditioning sector is 40%. With the acquisition of Suzhou Jinlong air conditioning supplier Xintongchuang, the market share of the bus sector will increase further as Suzhou Jinlong's sales volume gradually picks up. In the passenger car sector, traditional passenger car companies have a market share of 3.5%, and new energy passenger car companies have a market share of 10%. Passenger car revenue has grown at a compound rate of 29% over the past five years. However, due to the decline in gross margin, there has been no increase in revenue or profit. However, in the past two years, the company's customer structure has gradually improved, and the industry price war is basically nearing an end, so the company will usher in a new situation of “increasing revenue and profit.” New energy vehicle thermal management technology is difficult, space is doubled, and the company is expected to become a leader. Traditional vehicle thermal management is mainly “engine cooling+air conditioning”. New energy thermal management includes “battery thermal management+air conditioning”. The technical difficulty has increased. The cost of a stand-alone unit has also increased by about 7,000 yuan from the previous 3,700 yuan, doubling the space. With years of accumulation of air conditioning technology, the company is expected to become a leader in comprehensive thermal management for new energy vehicles. The company has cooperated deeply with many companies such as BAIC New Energy and SAIC Motor, fully proving its technical strength. Catalyst: The company's battery thermal management system enters the supply chain of core host manufacturers Risk warning: customer expansion falls short of expectations, and sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations

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