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新华联(000620)深度分析:地产金融双助力 文旅巨轮创未来

安信證券 ·  Mar 14, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  Xinhualian: Accelerate strategic transformation and achieve comprehensive operational upgrading: 1) Company profile: The company was founded in 1992 and began an active strategic transformation from a single real estate developer to “cultural tourism+finance+real estate” in 2012; 2) Equity structure: The company is the key holding enterprise of Xinhualian Group, with total revenue of 71.9 billion yuan in 2016 and strong strength. As of 17Q3, 59.79% of the shares of listed companies were held by Xinhualian Holdings, with equity concentration; 3) Company strategy: According to the company's new position, the company plans to take cultural tourism as the core of transformation, and more than 60% of resources will be invested in cultural tourism in the future; 4) Financial performance: The company achieved revenue of 7.5 billion yuan (+61.74%) and 3.7 billion yuan (+30.31%) in 2016 and 17Q3, respectively, with a continuous high growth trend; net profit of 524 million yuan (+70.35%) and 2.44 billion yuan (+) + (+) 47.53%). The future is expected to benefit from the successive opening of several cultural tourism projects under construction, which will continue to inject strong impetus into the company's performance growth. Cultural tourism: External forces and endogenics increase transformation, and the ancient town+ model has great potential: 1) Transformation logic: The external environment favors the development of the cultural tourism industry, and internal advantages help the company transform: ① External advantages: China's tourism industry has entered a period of rapid development. In the future, in the context of policy support, high-speed rail encryption, and increased demand for leisure and vacation tours, it is expected to continue to develop steadily; ② Internal advantages: The company started for real estate development and has mature and complete moat advantages in scenic area construction and real estate development. In addition, the company has its own industrial chain layout such as cultural tourism design institutes, hotel management companies, and travel agencies, etc., and has significant internal advantages in transforming the field of cultural tourism. 2) Operation logic: The core requirements for layout and site selection are clear, and the development and operation model is good: ① Site selection logic: equal emphasis on location and population, culture and economy; ② Development model: “Ancient Town +” model enriches project formats, and multi-level services expand compatibility and adaptability; ③ Operation and development: “sales+self-sustainment” moderate ratio, gradient development, and scientific connection. 3) Key projects: Five major cultural tourism projects are focused, which are expected to bring continuous performance growth to the company in the future: Changsha Tongguanyao Cultural Tourism Resort, Wuhu International Cultural Tourism Resort, Xining Xinhualian Tourist City, Beijing Fangshan Ten Degrees Scenic Area, and South Korea's Splendid Mountain Resort. The opening times of the five major cultural tourism projects are interlaced, forming a good medium- to long-term performance gradient release and achieving strategic transformation. Real estate: Focus on Tier 1 and 2 cities to accelerate overseas layout: 1) Focus on layout: In 2017, the company added multiple plots, including Tianjin Wuqing and Jiangsu Taicang, Jiangsu, and acquired two projects, Sanya Youju and Xin'an Oak Bay in Canada. The land reserves are sufficient, and the layout is concentrated in first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities; 2) Performance guarantee: Cultural tourism projects often have a long development cycle. In the process of transformation, the real estate sector can be used as a performance guarantee to feed back cultural tourism projects with stable cash flow. In addition, with the centralized entry of a number of high-quality projects in the second half of '17 and '18, real estate performance is expected to enter a period of rapid release; 3) Major real estate projects: the company's real estate projects have excellent location, good quality, strong brand influence, good sales conditions, good sales conditions, good sales, domestic and overseas, and there are still as many as 22 unsettled real estate projects, with plenty of reserve projects. Finance: Long-term optimism for development, layout of “banking+insurance+fintech”: China's financial market is booming, and the scale of the capital market is steadily expanding; the company lays out the financial sector, diversifies profits, and broadens financing channels. 1) Invest in the high-growth Bank of Changsha: The company holds 9.40% of the shares in Bank of Changsha, and long-term investment returns are steadily rising; 2) Participating in the preparation of Asia-Pacific Reinsurance: the first domestic private capital reinsurance company to improve financial sector business; 3) Proposed acquisition of You and We Finance to enter the field of innovative fintech: In October 17, the company plans to acquire 100% of the shares of You, We Finance through the holding subsidiary New Silk Road, and the performance of the seller's company promises that the 2017-19 net profit will not be less than 0.7 million yuan/200 million yuan/300 million yuan/3 million yuan, respectively, if the acquisition is successful It is expected that the company's performance will continue to increase in the future. Investment suggestions: After 6 years of in-depth layout, projects such as Wuhu Jiuzi Ancient Town, Changsha Tongguanyao, Xining International Resort, and Korea's Splendid Mountain Resort have been implemented one after another. It is expected that the company will usher in a qualitative transformation in 2018, and the cultural tourism+finance business will enter a period of continuous harvest. It is estimated that the company's revenue growth rate in 2017-2019 will be 25.7%/32.3%/19.4%, respectively, and net profit will be 832/10.87 /1,311 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.44/0.57/0.69 yuan. Considering the clear trend of the company's future transformation of cultural tourism+finance+real estate, and the abundance of cultural tourism and real estate reserve projects, PE was given 14.4x in 2018, with a target price of 8.21 yuan for 6 months, giving it a buy-A investment rating. Risk warning: 1) industry risk; 2) financial risk; 3) overseas business risk

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