Comments on the Annual report of China Reserve (600787): smart Logistics develops rapidly and its performance increases by 74.32% compared with the same period last year.

申萬宏源研究 · Mar 19, 2018 00:00 · Researches

投资要点：

事件/新闻：公司公布2017 年年度报告，全年实现营业收入256.03 亿元，同比增长67.55%；归母净利润13.38 亿元，同比增长74.32%；扣非归母净利润0.53 亿元，同比扭亏；最终实现基本每股收益0.61 元，加权平均ROE 为13.35%，同比增加4.99 个百分点，业绩基本符合预期。另外，Q3 公司以两家子公司100%股权置换诚通地产部分股权带来的投资收益14.59 亿元，增厚公司利润11.07 亿元，贡献了净利润八成。

智慧物流再上新台阶，带动运输收入大增117.95%。报告期内公司智慧物流业务快速发展，全年新增客户1505 家，新增代理142 家，目前已拥有高级承运会员157491 个，活跃承运人占比73.19%，带动运输收入达78.81 亿元，大幅增长117.95%，其中，配送运输业务收入59.79 亿元，同比增长242.32%；仓储业务收入6.95 亿元，同比增长3.84%；进出库收入 6.98 万元，同比增长 19.56%；集装箱业务收入0.78 亿元，同比增长3.19 %；现货市场收入 1.87 亿元，同比下降3.01 %；金融物流收入0.11亿元，同比下降31.92%。

大力发展供应链物流业务，商品流通类业务收入173.34 亿元。报告期内，公司继续着力完善仓储网络服务平台，继续大力拓展大宗商品供应链业务，积极培育物流+互联网的特色业务，同时随着大宗商品的继续活跃，全年公司商品贸易类业务迅速增长，共实现收入173.34 亿元，同比大增51.68%。

项目建设有序推进，未来盈利能力有保障。报告期内，公司石家庄、南京、辽宁、天津等多出物流基地建设项目有序推进，上海临港奉贤二期、天津中储陆港现代物流配送中心等物流基地已具备投产条件；同时完成铁西分公司不动产交储和郑州物流中心不动产继续交储。此外，公司正在积求南京电建中储房地产有限公司（持股49%）及天津中储恒丰置业有限公司（持股35%）股权的潜在购买方，为该两项目的挂牌转让创造条件。以上项目落地和稳定运营将保障公司未来的盈利能力。

加速与普洛斯合作进展，国内外资源深入整合。报告期内公司与第二大股东普洛斯合资成立中普投资公司，用于投资与管理新的物流基地项目，共同推进中储现代物流产业投资并购基金的设立，展开项目发现和培育。另外，公司继续整合国内外资源，完成Impala 上海洋山保税仓库项目收购，填补公司在上海自贸区内有色金属保税仓储设施的库容缺口，增强了业务覆盖能力。

调整盈利预测，维持“增持”评级。考虑到公司土地交储等进展的调整，我们调整公司18、19 年盈利预测，预计公司2018-2020 年归母净利润分别13.58 亿元、13.89 亿元、14.03 亿元（原18、19 预测为8.65 亿元、9.09 亿元），对应当前股价PE 为16 倍、15 倍、15 倍，维持“增持”评级。

风险提示：商品流通业务不及预期；股权出售及土地交储不及预期。

Main points of investment:

Events / news: the company released its annual report for 2017, with operating income of 25.603 billion yuan, an increase of 67.55% over the same period last year; net profit of 1.338 billion yuan, up 74.32% over the same period last year; deducting 53 million yuan of non-return net profit, reversing losses over the same period last year; finally achieved basic earnings per share of 0.61 yuan, weighted average ROE of 13.35%, an increase of 4.99% over the same period last year, and the performance was basically in line with expectations. In addition, Q3 Company replaced Chengtong Real Estate with 100% equity in two subsidiaries, resulting in an investment income of 1.459 billion yuan, thickening the company's profit by 1.107 billion yuan, and contributing 80% of the net profit.

Smart logistics has reached a new level, leading to a 117.95% increase in transport revenue. During the reporting period, the company's intelligent logistics business developed rapidly, with 1505 new customers and 142new agents. at present, it has 157491 senior carrier members, with active carriers accounting for 73.19%, driving transportation revenue of 7.881 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 117.95%, of which, distribution and transportation business income is 5.979 billion yuan, an increase of 242.32% over the same period last year, and warehousing business income is 695 million yuan, an increase of 3.84% over the same period last year. Revenue from storage was 69800 yuan, up 19.56% over the same period last year; revenue from container business was 78 million yuan, up 3.19% from the same period last year; spot market revenue was 187 million yuan, down 3.01% from the same period last year; and financial logistics revenue was 11 million yuan, down 31.92% from the same period last year.

Vigorously develop supply chain logistics business, commodity circulation business income of 17.334 billion yuan. During the reporting period, the company continued to focus on improving the warehousing network service platform, continued to vigorously expand the commodity supply chain business, and actively cultivated the characteristic business of logistics + Internet. At the same time, with the continued activity of commodities, the company's commodity trade business grew rapidly for the whole year, with a total income of 17.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.68%.

The construction of the project will be carried out in an orderly manner, and the profitability will be guaranteed in the future. During the reporting period, the company's Shijiazhuang, Nanjing, Liaoning, Tianjin and other logistics base construction projects advanced in an orderly manner, Shanghai Lingang Fengxian Phase II, Tianjin Zhongchu Land Port Modern Logistics Distribution Center and other logistics bases have the conditions to be put into production; at the same time, complete the delivery and storage of real estate in Tiexi branch and Zhengzhou logistics center. In addition, the company is seeking potential buyers of the shares of Nanjing Dianjian China Reserve Real Estate Co., Ltd. (49%) and Tianjin Zhongchu Hengfeng Real Estate Co., Ltd. (35%) to create conditions for the listing and transfer of the two projects. The landing and stable operation of the above projects will ensure the profitability of the company in the future.

Accelerate the progress of cooperation with GLP and further integrate domestic and foreign resources. During the reporting period, the company established a joint venture with GLP, the second largest shareholder, to invest in and manage new logistics base projects, jointly promote the establishment of China Reserve Modern Logistics Industry Investment M & A Fund, and carry out project discovery and cultivation. In addition, the company continued to integrate domestic and foreign resources, completed the acquisition of Impala Shanghai Yangshan bonded warehouse project, filled the storage gap of the company's non-ferrous metal bonded storage facilities in Shanghai Free Trade Zone, and enhanced its business coverage capacity.

Adjust profit forecast and maintain "overweight" rating. Taking into account the adjustment of the company's land delivery and storage progress, we adjust the company's profit forecast for 18 and 19 years. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2018 to 2020 will be 1.358 billion yuan, 1.389 billion yuan and 1.403 billion yuan respectively (the original 18,19 forecast is 865 million yuan and 909 million yuan). The corresponding stock price PE is 16 times, 15 times and 15 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk hint: commodity circulation business is not as expected; equity sales and land storage are not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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中储股份(600787)年报点评：智慧物流迅速发展 17业绩同比增长74.32%

Comments on the Annual report of China Reserve (600787): smart Logistics develops rapidly and its performance increases by 74.32% compared with the same period last year.

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