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红太阳(000525)点评:一季度业绩预告大幅增长 高于预期

羣益證券(香港) ·  Mar 1, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Conclusions and suggestions: The company released its performance forecast for the first quarter of 2018. Net profit is estimated at 250-280 million yuan, up 58.21%-77.19% year-on-year, and the company's performance exceeds expectations. Performance has exceeded expectations. On the one hand, the company's products have maintained a high level of prosperity. On the other hand, the reason is that the company's new production capacity and production progress has exceeded expectations. The company's newly put into production of 10,000 tons of biochemical enemy grass, 10,000 tons of biochemical VB3, and 25,000 tons of biochemical pyridine have all been successfully tested once. The release of new production capacity, the impact of repeated supply-side reforms, and stricter environmental protection, etc., brought about a rise in product prices. The company's performance in 2018 is expected to maintain high growth and maintain its “buy” rating. The new project was successfully tested, and the company's product boom increased rapidly, and the performance in the first quarter of '18 increased rapidly: the company's newly put into production 10,000 tons of biochemical enemy grass, 10,000 tons of biochemical VB3, and 25,000 tons of biochemical pyridine. The corresponding production capacity reached 12,000 tons, 20,000 tons, and 820,000 tons respectively. The company's production capacity expanded rapidly, and the pyridine industry chain entered a period of rapid growth. In terms of product prices, the average price of pure pyridine, the company's main intermediate, was 30,876 yuan/ton for the first two months, an increase of 50% over the average price of 20,549 yuan/ton in the first quarter of last year, and the price of formaldehyde, an upstream raw material, only increased 19% year on year. The downstream of pyridine alkali is mainly the pure pyridine industry chain and the 3-methylpyridine industry chain. The price of products corresponding to both industrial chains rose year on year. The price of imidacloprid in the 3-methylpyridine industry chain at the end of February was 205,000 yuan/ton, up 29.75% year on year. At the end of February, the price of 42% paraquat mother liquor under the pure pyridine industry chain was 22,000 yuan/ton, up 45% year on year. Furthermore, the price of pyridine was 58,000 yuan/ton. Toxicol was 49,000 yuan/ton, up 3.5,000/7% year on year, respectively. The release of new production capacity and high product prices were the main reasons for the increase in performance in the first quarter of '18. The pyridine industry is integrated, and overseas acquisitions are planned to further expand overseas markets: the company has a pyridine base production capacity of 82,000 tons/year, and is one of the world's leading enterprises in the industry. Of the pyridine base, 67% is pure pyridine. In the pure pyridine industry chain, there are mainly products such as paraquat, diazepam, and chlorpyridine. Additionally, 23% of pyridine bases are 3-methylpyridine. The downstream industry chain mainly consists of products such as VB3 and imidacloprid. Before VB3 production capacity was fully put into production, 3-methylpyridine was mainly exported. The company's 20% paraquat solubilizer is the only new paraquat dosage form officially registered in China. Overall, the company is currently the only domestic manufacturer with a full industry chain of paraquat and nicotinamide. At the same time, it also has various high-tonnage pesticide products such as toxic pyrides, imidacloprid, and permethrin, etc., and has advantages in the entire industry chain between upstream raw materials - midstream intermediates - downstream drugs and pharmaceuticals - terminals in the domestic and foreign markets. In addition, the company announced that the company officially initiated the acquisition of 60% of the shares of Ruralcao in Argentina, which is the distributor of FMC, an important global pesticide company, in Argentina. The company's foreign revenue for the first half of '17 was 926 million yuan, accounting for 38% of total revenue. With the completion of the acquisition and expansion of overseas layout, this ratio is expected to increase. The company's product price is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity in 2018: the current price of the company's pure pyridine product is 30,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50% over the same period. Compared with the average price of 2,8051 yuan/ton for the whole year of last year, the price of paraquat mother liquor, which rose 9.8% ,42%, has been running at a high level since February '17, and the price is between 21-23,000 yuan/ton. In terms of product prices, it still has a positive effect on the company's performance in 2018. Environmental policies are becoming stricter, and supply-side reforms will continue. The Ministry of Agriculture requires zero growth in domestic pesticide production capacity by 2020. Coupled with the central rise in international oil prices and foreign agrochemical giants to replenish stocks, the company's products may maintain a high level of prosperity. Furthermore, with the release of additional production capacity, the company's performance in 2018 is expected to grow steadily. Profit forecast: We expect the company to achieve net profit of 702/9.15/1,095 billion yuan in 2017/2018/2019, yoy +455.5%/+30.32%/+19.68%, equivalent to an EPS of 1.21/1.58/1.89 yuan. Currently, the PE corresponding to the A-share price is 19X, 15X, and 12X. Given that the company's products are expected to maintain a high level of prosperity and new production capacity is released ahead of schedule, we maintain our “buy” rating.

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