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惠理集团(806.HK)年报点评:业绩反转

申萬宏源研究 ·  Mar 14, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Value Partners Group has announced its full year 2017 results. Net profit reached HK$2.05 billion, an increase of 13.9 times over HK$138 million in 2016, mainly due to a significant improvement in performance fees. In 2017, performance expenses reached HK$2.57 billion, an increase of 237 times over 2016. At the same time, the company announced a special dividend of HK$86 per share, bringing the company's total dividend to HK$1.93 billion. We maintain the company's EPS forecast of HK$0.61/0.63 for 2018-2019, corresponding to -44.7%/2.45% year-on-year. At the same time, we introduced an EPS of HK$0.64 for 2020, up 1.69% year on year. We maintained our target price of HK$9.4, corresponding to 12% of our managed asset size per share in 2018, while raising our rating to buy. Excellent performance. Performance fee revenue was the main driver of Value Partners's profit growth in 2017. Performance fee revenue was HK$2.57 billion in 2017, compared to HK$1.08 million in 2016. This is mainly due to the rebound in net asset value of the company's main independent brand funds in an ideal market environment. In 2017, the average net asset value of the company's main funds was 31% above the previous high. Manage asset scale expansion. At the end of 2017, the company recorded assets under management of US$16.6 billion, a decrease of 1.2% over the previous year and an increase of 25.8% over the previous year. For the full year of 2017, net capital outflows were $200 million (net outflow in 2016 was $1.9 billion), of which $8.4 billion were subscriptions, up 115% year over year, and $8.6 billion was redemptions, up 84% year over year. Although there was an overall net outflow in 2017, the scale of assets under management increased by 25.8% over the same period. Furthermore, we note that at the end of January 2018, the company's assets under management reached US$18.4 billion, an increase of 10.8% over the previous year and an increase of 31.4% over the previous year. Outlook 2018. Value Partners announced that it will issue two global emerging market funds to increase the diversity of the company's products. At the same time, the company will also provide more fixed income products. In 2017, the company issued two fixed income funds, and another fixed income fund will be issued in the first half of 2018. Currently, fixed income assets account for 30% of the company's total assets under management. The company's flagship fixed income fund recorded a net capital inflow of 2.3 billion US dollars in 2017, with a yield as high as 10.1%. At the same time, the company is increasing its brand awareness globally. These efforts will ensure a steady increase in the size of the company's managed assets, which will bring stable management fee income. Upgraded to buy. We believe that Value Partners's product diversification and global brand effect will guarantee the company's stable management fee income. We maintain the company's EPS forecast of HK$0.61/0.63 for 2018-2019, corresponding to -44.7%/2.45% year-on-year. At the same time, we introduced an EPS of HK$0.64 for 2020, up 1.69% year on year. We maintain a target street of HK$9.4, corresponding to 12% of assets managed per share in 2018. There is room for growth of 22.6%, and we have upgraded our rating to buy.

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